The John De Lange Sophisticated Prediction Contest - WC 2010
in [World Football]
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From: Binder Dundat on 7 Jun 2010 14:57 On Jun 7, 12:54 pm, Jesus Petry <jesuspe...(a)pop.com.br> wrote: > On Jun 7, 1:26 pm, Real Mardin <real_mar...(a)yahoo.co.uk> wrote: > > > Sorry to ask such an un-sophisticated question in this most > > sohisticated of threads, but just for clarification: > > > Does "P_R1" indicate the percentage chance of the team being > > eliminated in the first round? > > > So if I think Argentina are 90% likely to advance from Group B I > > actually insert a value of 10% (or .1000) into column "P_R1"? Would you not put a 1.000 if you were 100% sure or .900 if you were 90% or 0 if you though they had no chance etc? > > > Or not? > > Yes, that's the idea in the bigger version. > > Tchau! > Jesus Petry
From: Jesus Petry on 7 Jun 2010 15:12 On Jun 7, 3:57 pm, Binder Dundat <dun...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On Jun 7, 12:54 pm, Jesus Petry <jesuspe...(a)pop.com.br> wrote: > > > On Jun 7, 1:26 pm, Real Mardin <real_mar...(a)yahoo.co.uk> wrote: > > > > Sorry to ask such an un-sophisticated question in this most > > > sohisticated of threads, but just for clarification: > > > > Does "P_R1" indicate the percentage chance of the team being > > > eliminated in the first round? > > > > So if I think Argentina are 90% likely to advance from Group B I > > > actually insert a value of 10% (or .1000) into column "P_R1"? > > Would you not put a 1.000 if you were 100% sure or .900 if you were > 90% or 0 if you though they had no chance etc? In the short version, yes, but in the version with the whole tournament you're predicting "not advancing" instead of "advancing". Tchau! Jesus Petry
From: JK on 8 Jun 2010 15:05 Real Mardin wrote: > Sorry to ask such an un-sophisticated question in this most > sohisticated of threads, but just for clarification: > > Does "P_R1" indicate the percentage chance of the team being > eliminated in the first round? > > So if I think Argentina are 90% likely to advance from Group B I > actually insert a value of 10% (or .1000) into column "P_R1"? > > Or not? > Related question: so for the team you actually think is going to win, what are you supposed to do? E.g., if I think Brazil is going to win, am I suppposed to give them a small chance of losing the final? If I think they cruise to the final, with only a minimal chance of losing before then, do I have to I assign a really high value to them losing the final?
From: Jesus Petry on 8 Jun 2010 15:01 On Jun 8, 4:05 pm, JK <jkn...(a)oacpc.com> wrote: > Real Mardin wrote: > > Sorry to ask such an un-sophisticated question in this most > > sohisticated of threads, but just for clarification: > > > Does "P_R1" indicate the percentage chance of the team being > > eliminated in the first round? > > > So if I think Argentina are 90% likely to advance from Group B I > > actually insert a value of 10% (or .1000) into column "P_R1"? > > > Or not? > > Related question: so for the team you actually think is going to win, > what are you supposed to do? > > E.g., if I think Brazil is going to win, am I suppposed to give them a > small chance of losing the final? If I think they cruise to the final, > with only a minimal chance of losing before then, do I have to I assign > a really high value to them losing the final? You might do something like this: P_R1 P_R16 P_QF P_SF P_LF P_WF .001 .001 .001 .001 .498 .498 Of course, you'd have to change other teams' chances accordingly so that all sums up. Tchau! Jesus Petry
From: JK on 8 Jun 2010 15:43
Jesus Petry wrote: > On Jun 8, 4:05 pm, JK <jkn...(a)oacpc.com> wrote: >> Real Mardin wrote: >>> Sorry to ask such an un-sophisticated question in this most >>> sohisticated of threads, but just for clarification: >>> Does "P_R1" indicate the percentage chance of the team being >>> eliminated in the first round? >>> So if I think Argentina are 90% likely to advance from Group B I >>> actually insert a value of 10% (or .1000) into column "P_R1"? >>> Or not? >> Related question: so for the team you actually think is going to win, >> what are you supposed to do? >> >> E.g., if I think Brazil is going to win, am I suppposed to give them a >> small chance of losing the final? If I think they cruise to the final, >> with only a minimal chance of losing before then, do I have to I assign >> a really high value to them losing the final? > > You might do something like this: > > P_R1 P_R16 P_QF P_SF P_LF P_WF > .001 .001 .001 .001 .498 .498 > > Of course, you'd have to change other teams' chances accordingly so > that all sums up. > > Tchau! > Jesus Petry Okay, I think I get it. Thanks! |