The John De Lange Sophisticated Prediction Contest - WC 2010
in [World Football]
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From: Real Mardin on 8 Jun 2010 15:49 On Jun 8, 8:15 pm, anders t <anthu_001(a)no_-_spam_.hotmail.com> wrote: >> > The thing is that you have to weigh in everything before dishing out the > percentages. Hence "sophisticated". You have to understand how teams > can/may/will advance (and not) and against which teams (and not) on the > way, and their respective strengths (and not). You need to know how the > brackets are made up, and the constraints they lead to (and not). Am replying to this simply because I think it's great advice and I don't want it to disappear into the abyss that is the x-archive. RM
From: JK on 8 Jun 2010 17:03 anders t wrote: > Quoting JK in rec.sport.soccer: >> Real Mardin wrote: >>> Sorry to ask such an un-sophisticated question in this most >>> sohisticated of threads, but just for clarification: >>> >>> Does "P_R1" indicate the percentage chance of the team being >>> eliminated in the first round? >>> >>> So if I think Argentina are 90% likely to advance from Group B I >>> actually insert a value of 10% (or .1000) into column "P_R1"? >>> >>> Or not? >>> >> Related question: so for the team you actually think is going to win, >> what are you supposed to do? >> >> E.g., if I think Brazil is going to win, am I suppposed to give them a >> small chance of losing the final? If I think they cruise to the final, >> with only a minimal chance of losing before then, do I have to I assign >> a really high value to them losing the final? > > The thing is that you have to weigh in everything before dishing out the > percentages. Hence "sophisticated". You have to understand how teams > can/may/will advance (and not) and against which teams (and not) on the > way, and their respective strengths (and not). You need to know how the > brackets are made up, and the constraints they lead to (and not). I think the other thing I didn't realize is that the last column is chances of winning the cup, not chances of losing the final. Makes more sense now.
From: milivella on 10 Jun 2010 15:05 futbolmetrix: > My entry: Let's see who would win the Futbolmetrix vs. milivella bet http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t_gMZU4-AVFZ4iUCFHvXcMQ&output=html if the most probable (according to Futbolmetrix!) happens: > P_R1 P_R16 P_QF P_SF P_LF P_WF Total > France .1500 .2700 .3100 .1400 .0650 .0650 1.000 OK Nobody scores. > B Argentina .0500 .2700 .3200 .2100 .0750 .0750 1.000 OK Nobody scores. > C England .0200 .3300 .2700 .1900 .0950 .0950 1.000 OK Point to milivella. 0-1. > D Germany .0500 .3500 .2400 .2100 .0750 .0750 1.000 OK Point to milivella. 0-2. > Serbia .1000 .5300 .2500 .0600 .0300 .0300 1.000 OK Nobody scores. > Ghana .9000 .0600 .0200 .0100 .0050 .0050 1.000 OK Point to milivella. 0-3. > Cameroon .5400 .1500 .2300 .0400 .0200 .0200 1.000 OK Point to milivella. 0-4. > F Italy .3600 .4800 .0700 .0450 .0225 .0225 1.000 OK Point to milivella. 0-5. > G Brazil .0050 .0580 .3690 .1930 .1850 .1900 1.000 OK Nobody scores. > Portugal .3500 .5600 .0400 .0250 .0125 .0125 1.000 OK Point to Futbolmetrix. 1-5. > Cote d'Ivoire .6500 .2300 .0700 .0250 .0125 .0125 1.000 OK Point to milivella. 1-6. > H Spain .0300 .1900 .2600 .2450 .1400 .1350 1.000 OK Point to Futbolmetrix. 2-6. > Chile .6500 .3300 .0100 .0050 .0025 .0025 1.000 OK Point to milivella. 2-7. Ah! -- Cheers milivella
From: futbolmetrix on 10 Jun 2010 16:13 On Jun 10, 10:05 pm, milivella <milive...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > futbolmetrix: > > > My entry: > > Let's see who would win the Futbolmetrix vs. milivella bethttp://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t_gMZU4-AVFZ4iUCFHvXcMQ&output... > if the most probable (according to Futbolmetrix!) happens: > > > Point to milivella. 2-7. > Just hedging my bets... D
From: futbolmetrix on 10 Jun 2010 16:34
On Jun 9, 8:27 am, futbolmetrix <daniele.paser...(a)gmail.com> wrote: Still about 17 hours to submit your entry. I won't be able to post further updates before the RSA-MEX kickoff, so make sure that there are no errors in your form Valid entries so far: Agnostic Lleo 7h(a)ch Jesus Petry Philipp Lucas Miguel Werner Pichler Jussi Uosukainen Futbolmetrix ELO Philipp Lucas Werner Pichler Jussi Uosukainen JK Joachim Parsch Jim Goloboy Luiz Mello Anders T milivella milivella -castrol (pending) MH Chris Horymski |