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From: World Cup Ratings 2010 on 23 Apr 2010 14:09
During the last year, I have developed a statistical software - World
Cup Ratings 2010 - that calculates
probabilities for reaching the title, final, semi-final, etc. As a
physicist with a phd in science I payed
special attention to mathematical correctness.
The software is - as far as I know - unique and has real chances in
beating the odds. Based on Elo coefficients, all possible
constellations are considered. Updates after games are possible, as
well as fictive scenarios. It is also possible to examine the question
haw far a second group place can increase the probability for the
title win.
The current chances are: Brazil: 16%, Spain: 15%, Netherlands: 14%,
England: 10%.
A comparison with odd quotas (quota = 1 / probability) has shown
similarities but also differences stemming from group line-ups.
It is freeware - needs however OpenOffice.org (also freeware) - and
can be downloaded here:
http://www.wikiupload.com/bgqM3oC9
or here:
http://www.filefactory.com/file/b13cb7f/n/WorldCupRatings2010v1.0.zip
or here:
http://www.file-upload.net/download-2455021/WorldCupRatings2010v1.0.zip.html
Feel free to distribute it.:-)
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