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From: World Cup Ratings 2010 on 20 Jun 2010 16:40
Meanwhile, the new Elo ratings as of June 18 are used.
In comparison to the hitherto results with Elo numbers as of
June 14, several changes can be observed. Especially the Title
probabilities for Germany and Spain dropped by over 2% while
the chances of Argentina and Mexico rose by the same amount.
The current Title favourites are the Netherlands, followed by
Brazil and Argentina.

The current probabilities for succeeding - calculated with the
program World Cup Ratings 2010 - are as listed beneath.

World Cup Ratings 2010 can be downloaded here for free:
http://www.file-upload.net/download-2455021/WorldCupRatings2010v1.0.zip.html
For latest news follow worldcupratings at Twitter.

World Cup Ratings 2010 uses Elo coefficients for a
thorough simulation of all possible results.
http://www.eloratings.net
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings

Calculated probabilities in percent (%):
Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title
Group A
South Africa | 20.53 | 5.32 | 1.49 | 0.33 | 0.07
Mexico | 76.78 | 47.65 | 28 | 13.36 | 6.78
Uruguay | 68.72 | 37.05 | 19.21 | 8.04 | 3.45
France | 33.97 | 13.8 | 5.99 | 2.23 | 0.74
Group B
Argentina | 92.03 | 60.03 | 36.61 | 22.12 | 11.03
Nigeria | 9.4 | 2.29 | 0.64 | 0.11 | 0.03
South Korea | 70.34 | 25.3 | 9.92 | 2.75 | 0.9
Greece | 28.23 | 8.56 | 2.8 | 0.67 | 0.17
Group C
England | 63.49 | 41.68 | 19.98 | 10.55 | 5.58
USA | 61.28 | 27.09 | 12.94 | 4.27 | 1.34
Algeria | 13.61 | 2.55 | 1.19 | 0.17 | 0.02
Slovenia | 61.62 | 20.34 | 9.63 | 2.36 | 0.51
Group D
Germany | 63.59 | 42.45 | 20.23 | 10.28 | 5.12
Australia | 18.77 | 8.11 | 3.87 | 1.11 | 0.3
Serbia | 59.58 | 32.44 | 15.65 | 5.88 | 2.24
Ghana | 58.06 | 25.35 | 11.85 | 3.56 | 0.89
Group E
Netherlands | 100 | 80.92 | 45.01 | 28.01 | 19.51
Denmark | 54.16 | 22.25 | 7.39 | 3.83 | 0.9
Japan | 45.84 | 17.17 | 5.1 | 2.65 | 0.55
Cameroon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Group F
Italy | 80.59 | 45.11 | 23.68 | 12.23 | 5.42
Paraguay | 70.02 | 26.03 | 8.85 | 4.68 | 1.3
New Zealand | 20.48 | 2.69 | 0.35 | 0.19 | 0.02
Slovakia | 28.91 | 5.84 | 1.16 | 0.63 | 0.11
Group G
Brazil | 91.82 | 68.41 | 36 | 21.07 | 15.99
North Korea | 6.5 | 0.8 | 0.45 | 0.24 | 0.02
Cote d'Ivoire | 47.39 | 15.46 | 8.61 | 4.6 | 1.23
Portugal | 54.29 | 23.88 | 13.26 | 7.04 | 2.64
Group H
Spain | 55.49 | 33.88 | 18.41 | 10.07 | 6.63
Switzerland | 68.1 | 23.55 | 12.97 | 6.99 | 2.24
Honduras | 5.52 | 1.06 | 0.57 | 0.34 | 0.08
Chile | 70.88 | 32.94 | 18.19 | 9.64 | 4.19

Tha latest play has changed probabilities:
Probability change in percent (%):
Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title
Group A
South Africa | 0.37 | -0.87 | -0.49 | -0.2 | -0.05
Mexico | 0.33 | 3.96 | 4.51 | 3.28 | 2.25
Uruguay | -0.33 | 2.56 | 2.83 | 1.84 | 1.07
France | -0.36 | -2.64 | -2.03 | -1.23 | -0.57
Group B
Argentina | 0.1 | 2.5 | 3.26 | 3.21 | 2.54
Nigeria | 0.1 | -0.55 | -0.26 | -0.07 | -0.02
South Korea | -0.13 | -5.4 | -3.51 | -1.49 | -1.49
Greece | -0.07 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 0.17 | 0.06
Group C
England | -1.42 | -2.33 | -2.17 | -1.85 | -1.43
USA | -1.23 | -1.12 | -1.21 | -0.56 | -0.24
Algeria | 1.45 | 0.52 | 0.2 | 0.04 | 0.01
Slovenia | 1.19 | 1.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.03
Group D
Germany | -4.71 | -5.5 | -3.76 | -3.21 | -2.43
Australia | -2.89 | -1.01 | -0.69 | -0.21 | -0.06
Serbia | 5.67 | 6.96 | 2.78 | 1.69 | 0.87
Ghana | 1.93 | 1.45 | 0.09 | -0.01 | 0
Group E
Netherlands | 0 | -0.01 | 0.55 | 0.05 | 0
Denmark | 0 | -0.01 | 0 | -0.08 | -0.02
Japan | 0 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.06 | -0.02
Cameroon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Group F
Italy | -0.24 | -0.13 | 0.32 | -0.06 | 0.01
Paraguay | -0.33 | -0.13 | -0.01 | -0.09 | -0.02
New Zealand | -0.16 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.01 | 0
Slovakia | 0.74 | 0.33 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.01
Group G
Brazil | -0.32 | 1.15 | 0.26 | -0.09 | 0.01
North Korea | -0.8 | -0.23 | -0.13 | -0.07 | -0.01
Cote d'Ivoire | 1.8 | 1.19 | 0.61 | 0.25 | 0.16
Portugal | -0.68 | -1.11 | -0.71 | -0.5 | -0.24
Group H
Spain | -6.43 | -7.78 | -4.44 | -2.41 | -2.29
Switzerland | 8.04 | 6.13 | 3.3 | 1.64 | 0.84
Honduras | -0.96 | -0.43 | -0.24 | -0.14 | -0.05
Chile | -0.66 | 1.06 | 0.45 | 0.08 | 0.3
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