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From: World Cup Ratings 2010 on 16 Jun 2010 16:44 Spain's dramatic defeat against Switzerland has decreased its Title chances dramatically by over 5%. Spain remains 3rd in the Title chances, but only very slightly before Germany and England. Switzerland has still no significant Title, but good chances to survive the preliminaries. Chile has after the probable victory against Honduras very good chances to reach the last 16 and also 4% Title chances! Honduras is practically out. The - also quite probable - victory of Uruguay against South Africa made the reaching of the next round quite probable. South Africa will - also quite probably - not reach the next round. The current probabilities for succeeding - calculated with the program World Cup Ratings 2010 - are as listed beneath. World Cup Ratings 2010 can be downloaded here for free: http://www.file-upload.net/download-2455021/WorldCupRatings2010v1.0.zip.html For latest news follow worldcupratings at Twitter. World Cup Ratings 2010 uses Elo coefficients for a thorough simulation of all possible results. http://www.eloratings.net http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings Calculated probabilities in percent (%): Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title Group A South Africa | 19.5 | 6.17 | 1.82 | 0.49 | 0.11 Mexico | 55.42 | 30.85 | 16.03 | 7.14 | 3.09 Uruguay | 69.85 | 34.54 | 15.8 | 6.05 | 2.26 France | 55.24 | 28.27 | 13.43 | 5.43 | 2.12 Group B Argentina | 88.95 | 55.62 | 31.81 | 16.31 | 7.69 Nigeria | 23.13 | 7.25 | 2.21 | 0.5 | 0.12 South Korea | 75.53 | 33.68 | 14.01 | 4.82 | 1.62 Greece | 12.38 | 3.6 | 1.02 | 0.21 | 0.05 Group C England | 80.65 | 53.96 | 27.94 | 15.32 | 8.67 USA | 68.14 | 29.27 | 15.18 | 5.14 | 1.66 Algeria | 3.24 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0 Slovenia | 47.98 | 13.69 | 7.12 | 1.7 | 0.36 Group D Germany | 89.52 | 61.2 | 31.96 | 18.67 | 9.82 Australia | 26.84 | 9.7 | 5.01 | 1.33 | 0.38 Serbia | 19.58 | 8.27 | 4.28 | 1.39 | 0.46 Ghana | 64.06 | 23.49 | 12.17 | 3.33 | 0.89 Group E Netherlands | 95.4 | 76.93 | 44.66 | 26.42 | 18.04 Denmark | 38.08 | 15.77 | 5.02 | 2.67 | 0.65 Japan | 57.18 | 21.97 | 5.97 | 3.22 | 0.71 Cameroon | 9.34 | 3.07 | 0.71 | 0.38 | 0.07 Group F Italy | 80.83 | 45.88 | 23.17 | 12.2 | 5.42 Paraguay | 70.35 | 27.19 | 8.89 | 4.82 | 1.35 New Zealand | 20.64 | 3.1 | 0.39 | 0.22 | 0.03 Slovakia | 28.17 | 6.09 | 1.13 | 0.63 | 0.11 Group G Brazil | 92.14 | 67.26 | 36.58 | 21.62 | 16.1 North Korea | 7.3 | 1.03 | 0.58 | 0.31 | 0.03 Cote d'Ivoire | 45.59 | 14.27 | 7.93 | 4.31 | 1.06 Portugal | 54.97 | 24.99 | 13.88 | 7.49 | 2.86 Group H Spain | 61.92 | 41.66 | 22.96 | 12.53 | 8.91 Switzerland | 60.06 | 17.42 | 9.65 | 5.33 | 1.39 Honduras | 6.48 | 1.49 | 0.82 | 0.49 | 0.13 Chile | 71.54 | 31.88 | 17.67 | 9.52 | 3.86 Tha latest play has changed probabilities: Probability change in percent (%): Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title Group A South Africa | -14.83 | -5.01 | -1.55 | -0.32 | -0.07 Mexico | 0.32 | 0.14 | -0.01 | 0.21 | 0.22 Uruguay | 15.44 | 7.75 | 3.53 | 1.46 | 0.62 France | -0.92 | -0.49 | -0.29 | 0.07 | 0.12 Group B Argentina | 0 | -0.92 | -0.64 | 0.46 | 0.33 Nigeria | 0 | -0.31 | -0.1 | -0.02 | 0 South Korea | 0 | -1 | -0.47 | 0.01 | 0.01 Greece | 0 | -0.17 | -0.05 | -0.01 | 0 Group C England | 0 | 0 | -0.12 | 0.12 | 0.45 USA | 0 | 0 | -0.06 | 0.19 | 0.13 Algeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 Slovenia | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | 0.11 | 0.04 Group D Germany | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | 0.77 | 0.45 Australia | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 Serbia | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 Ghana | 0 | 0 | -0.05 | 0.11 | 0.07 Group E Netherlands | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | -0.14 | 0.85 Denmark | 0 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.31 | 0.07 Japan | 0 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.35 | 0.08 Cameroon | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.01 Group F Italy | 0 | 0 | 2.25 | 0.51 | 0.28 Paraguay | 0 | 0 | 1.22 | 0.4 | 0.13 New Zealand | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 Slovakia | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 Group G Brazil | 0 | -0.73 | -0.57 | -0.54 | 0.29 North Korea | 0 | 0.37 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.01 Cote d'Ivoire | 0 | 3.68 | 1.63 | 0.65 | 0.17 Portugal | 0 | 5.25 | 2.19 | 0.78 | 0.33 Group H Spain | -27.87 | -24.59 | -17.33 | -9.28 | -5.95 Switzerland | 33.15 | 10.91 | 5.94 | 3.09 | 0.8 Honduras | -16.94 | -3.75 | -2.17 | -1.32 | -0.31 Chile | 11.66 | 8.86 | 4.46 | 1.8 | 0.73
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