From: World Cup Ratings 2010 on
Spain's dramatic defeat against Switzerland has decreased its
Title chances dramatically by over 5%. Spain remains 3rd in
the Title chances, but only very slightly before Germany and
England. Switzerland has still no significant Title, but good
chances to survive the preliminaries.
Chile has after the probable victory against Honduras very good
chances to reach the last 16 and also 4% Title chances! Honduras
is practically out.
The - also quite probable - victory of Uruguay against South
Africa made the reaching of the next round quite probable. South
Africa will - also quite probably - not reach the next round.

The current probabilities for succeeding - calculated with the
program World Cup Ratings 2010 - are as listed beneath.

World Cup Ratings 2010 can be downloaded here for free:
http://www.file-upload.net/download-2455021/WorldCupRatings2010v1.0.zip.html
For latest news follow worldcupratings at Twitter.

World Cup Ratings 2010 uses Elo coefficients for a
thorough simulation of all possible results.
http://www.eloratings.net
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings

Calculated probabilities in percent (%):
Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title
Group A
South Africa | 19.5 | 6.17 | 1.82 | 0.49 | 0.11
Mexico | 55.42 | 30.85 | 16.03 | 7.14 | 3.09
Uruguay | 69.85 | 34.54 | 15.8 | 6.05 | 2.26
France | 55.24 | 28.27 | 13.43 | 5.43 | 2.12
Group B
Argentina | 88.95 | 55.62 | 31.81 | 16.31 | 7.69
Nigeria | 23.13 | 7.25 | 2.21 | 0.5 | 0.12
South Korea | 75.53 | 33.68 | 14.01 | 4.82 | 1.62
Greece | 12.38 | 3.6 | 1.02 | 0.21 | 0.05
Group C
England | 80.65 | 53.96 | 27.94 | 15.32 | 8.67
USA | 68.14 | 29.27 | 15.18 | 5.14 | 1.66
Algeria | 3.24 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0
Slovenia | 47.98 | 13.69 | 7.12 | 1.7 | 0.36
Group D
Germany | 89.52 | 61.2 | 31.96 | 18.67 | 9.82
Australia | 26.84 | 9.7 | 5.01 | 1.33 | 0.38
Serbia | 19.58 | 8.27 | 4.28 | 1.39 | 0.46
Ghana | 64.06 | 23.49 | 12.17 | 3.33 | 0.89
Group E
Netherlands | 95.4 | 76.93 | 44.66 | 26.42 | 18.04
Denmark | 38.08 | 15.77 | 5.02 | 2.67 | 0.65
Japan | 57.18 | 21.97 | 5.97 | 3.22 | 0.71
Cameroon | 9.34 | 3.07 | 0.71 | 0.38 | 0.07
Group F
Italy | 80.83 | 45.88 | 23.17 | 12.2 | 5.42
Paraguay | 70.35 | 27.19 | 8.89 | 4.82 | 1.35
New Zealand | 20.64 | 3.1 | 0.39 | 0.22 | 0.03
Slovakia | 28.17 | 6.09 | 1.13 | 0.63 | 0.11
Group G
Brazil | 92.14 | 67.26 | 36.58 | 21.62 | 16.1
North Korea | 7.3 | 1.03 | 0.58 | 0.31 | 0.03
Cote d'Ivoire | 45.59 | 14.27 | 7.93 | 4.31 | 1.06
Portugal | 54.97 | 24.99 | 13.88 | 7.49 | 2.86
Group H
Spain | 61.92 | 41.66 | 22.96 | 12.53 | 8.91
Switzerland | 60.06 | 17.42 | 9.65 | 5.33 | 1.39
Honduras | 6.48 | 1.49 | 0.82 | 0.49 | 0.13
Chile | 71.54 | 31.88 | 17.67 | 9.52 | 3.86

Tha latest play has changed probabilities:
Probability change in percent (%):
Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title
Group A
South Africa | -14.83 | -5.01 | -1.55 | -0.32 | -0.07
Mexico | 0.32 | 0.14 | -0.01 | 0.21 | 0.22
Uruguay | 15.44 | 7.75 | 3.53 | 1.46 | 0.62
France | -0.92 | -0.49 | -0.29 | 0.07 | 0.12
Group B
Argentina | 0 | -0.92 | -0.64 | 0.46 | 0.33
Nigeria | 0 | -0.31 | -0.1 | -0.02 | 0
South Korea | 0 | -1 | -0.47 | 0.01 | 0.01
Greece | 0 | -0.17 | -0.05 | -0.01 | 0
Group C
England | 0 | 0 | -0.12 | 0.12 | 0.45
USA | 0 | 0 | -0.06 | 0.19 | 0.13
Algeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Slovenia | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | 0.11 | 0.04
Group D
Germany | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | 0.77 | 0.45
Australia | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03
Serbia | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04
Ghana | 0 | 0 | -0.05 | 0.11 | 0.07
Group E
Netherlands | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | -0.14 | 0.85
Denmark | 0 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.31 | 0.07
Japan | 0 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.35 | 0.08
Cameroon | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.01
Group F
Italy | 0 | 0 | 2.25 | 0.51 | 0.28
Paraguay | 0 | 0 | 1.22 | 0.4 | 0.13
New Zealand | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01
Slovakia | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01
Group G
Brazil | 0 | -0.73 | -0.57 | -0.54 | 0.29
North Korea | 0 | 0.37 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.01
Cote d'Ivoire | 0 | 3.68 | 1.63 | 0.65 | 0.17
Portugal | 0 | 5.25 | 2.19 | 0.78 | 0.33
Group H
Spain | -27.87 | -24.59 | -17.33 | -9.28 | -5.95
Switzerland | 33.15 | 10.91 | 5.94 | 3.09 | 0.8
Honduras | -16.94 | -3.75 | -2.17 | -1.32 | -0.31
Chile | 11.66 | 8.86 | 4.46 | 1.8 | 0.73
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