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From: World Cup Ratings 2010 on 15 Jun 2010 16:29
Today's results changed the probabilities only slightly since
the expectations were generally met.
Brazil has - after the very probable victory against North Korea
- the second best Title chances after the Netherlands.
Portugal lost chances for group advance and has to be careful
- though the
chances are good.
The chances of Slovakia and New Zealy remain small - though not
negligible.

The current probabilities for succeeding - calculated with the
program World Cup Ratings 2010 - are as listed beneath.

World Cup Ratings 2010 can be downloaded here for free:
http://www.file-upload.net/download-2455021/WorldCupRatings2010v1.0.zip.html
For latest news follow worldcupratings at Twitter.

World Cup Ratings 2010 uses Elo coefficients for a
thorough simulation of all possible results.
http://www.eloratings.net
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings

Calculated probabilities in percent (%):
Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title
Group A
South Africa | 34.33 | 11.18 | 3.37 | 0.81 | 0.18
Mexico | 55.1 | 30.71 | 16.04 | 6.93 | 2.87
Uruguay | 54.41 | 26.79 | 12.27 | 4.59 | 1.64
France | 56.16 | 28.76 | 13.72 | 5.36 | 2
Group B
Argentina | 88.95 | 56.54 | 32.45 | 15.85 | 7.36
Nigeria | 23.13 | 7.56 | 2.31 | 0.52 | 0.12
South Korea | 75.53 | 34.68 | 14.48 | 4.81 | 4.81
Greece | 12.38 | 3.77 | 1.07 | 0.22 | 0.05
Group C
England | 80.65 | 53.96 | 28.06 | 15.2 | 8.22
USA | 68.14 | 29.27 | 15.24 | 4.95 | 1.53
Algeria | 3.24 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0
Slovenia | 47.98 | 13.69 | 7.14 | 1.59 | 0.32
Group D
Germany | 89.52 | 61.2 | 32.06 | 17.9 | 9.37
Australia | 26.84 | 9.7 | 5.03 | 1.32 | 0.35
Serbia | 19.58 | 8.27 | 4.3 | 1.36 | 0.42
Ghana | 64.06 | 23.49 | 12.22 | 3.22 | 0.82
Group E
Netherlands | 95.4 | 76.93 | 44.68 | 26.56 | 17.19
Denmark | 38.08 | 15.77 | 4.13 | 2.36 | 0.58
Japan | 57.18 | 21.97 | 4.98 | 2.87 | 0.63
Cameroon | 9.34 | 3.07 | 0.58 | 0.34 | 0.06
Group F
Italy | 80.83 | 45.88 | 20.92 | 11.69 | 5.14
Paraguay | 70.35 | 27.19 | 7.67 | 4.42 | 1.22
New Zealand | 20.64 | 3.1 | 0.34 | 0.2 | 0.02
Slovakia | 28.17 | 6.09 | 0.97 | 0.58 | 0.1
Group G
Brazil | 92.14 | 67.99 | 37.15 | 22.16 | 15.81
North Korea | 7.3 | 0.66 | 0.4 | 0.23 | 0.02
Cote d'Ivoire | 45.59 | 10.59 | 6.3 | 3.66 | 0.89
Portugal | 54.97 | 19.74 | 11.69 | 6.71 | 2.53
Group H
Spain | 89.79 | 66.25 | 40.29 | 21.81 | 14.86
Switzerland | 26.91 | 6.51 | 3.71 | 2.24 | 0.59
Honduras | 23.42 | 5.24 | 2.99 | 1.81 | 0.44
Chile | 59.88 | 23.02 | 13.21 | 7.72 | 3.13

Tha latest play has changed probabilities:
Probability change in percent (%):
Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title
Group A
South Africa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Mexico | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.01 | -0.01
Uruguay | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.01 | 0
France | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.01 | 0
Group B
Argentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.01
Nigeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
South Korea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Greece | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Group C
England | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.03 | -0.02
USA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Algeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0
Group D
Germany | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.02
Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Serbia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Ghana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Group E
Netherlands | 0 | 0.01 | -0.15 | -0.06 | -0.02
Denmark | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01
Japan | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01
Cameroon | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0
Group F
Italy | 0.35 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.01
Paraguay | 0.41 | 0.19 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 0.01
New Zealand | 3.49 | 0.55 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0
Slovakia | -4.26 | -0.96 | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.01
Group G
Brazil | 0.44 | 0.6 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.28
North Korea | -0.85 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.01
Cote d'Ivoire | 11.49 | 2.62 | 1.56 | 0.89 | 0.21
Portugal | -11.09 | -4.12 | -2.44 | -1.37 | -0.52
Group H
Spain | 0 | 0.78 | 0.38 | 0.14 | 0.06
Switzerland | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01
Honduras | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0
Chile | 0 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.02
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