Prev: It's going to be a massacre - the best team vs the worst team in the World Cup
Next: World Cup Probability Newsticker - Day 5
From: World Cup Ratings 2010 on 15 Jun 2010 16:28
Meanwhile, the new Elo ratings as of June 14 are used.
In comparison to the hitherto results with Elo numbers as of
June 10, several changes can be observed. Especially the Title
probabilities for Germany and the Netherlands rose by nearly
2% while the chances of England and Italy dropped by the same
amount. The current Title favourite are the Netherlands,
followed by Brazil and Spain.

The current probabilities for succeeding - calculated with the
program World Cup Ratings 2010 - are as listed beneath.

World Cup Ratings 2010 can be downloaded here for free:
http://www.file-upload.net/download-2455021/WorldCupRatings2010v1.0.zip.html
For latest news follow worldcupratings at Twitter.

World Cup Ratings 2010 uses Elo coefficients for a
thorough simulation of all possible results.
http://www.eloratings.net
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings

Calculated probabilities in percent (%):
Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title
Group A
South Africa | 34.33 | 11.18 | 3.37 | 0.81 | 0.18
Mexico | 55.1 | 30.71 | 16.04 | 6.94 | 2.88
Uruguay | 54.41 | 26.79 | 12.27 | 4.6 | 1.64
France | 56.16 | 28.76 | 13.72 | 5.37 | 2
Group B
Argentina | 88.95 | 56.54 | 32.45 | 15.84 | 7.37
Nigeria | 23.13 | 7.56 | 2.31 | 0.52 | 0.12
South Korea | 75.53 | 34.68 | 14.48 | 4.81 | 4.81
Greece | 12.38 | 3.77 | 1.07 | 0.22 | 0.05
Group C
England | 80.65 | 53.96 | 28.06 | 15.23 | 8.24
USA | 68.14 | 29.27 | 15.24 | 4.95 | 1.53
Algeria | 3.24 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0
Slovenia | 47.98 | 13.69 | 7.14 | 1.58 | 0.32
Group D
Germany | 89.52 | 61.2 | 32.06 | 17.9 | 9.39
Australia | 26.84 | 9.7 | 5.03 | 1.32 | 0.35
Serbia | 19.58 | 8.27 | 4.3 | 1.36 | 0.42
Ghana | 64.06 | 23.49 | 12.22 | 3.22 | 0.82
Group E
Netherlands | 95.4 | 76.92 | 44.83 | 26.62 | 17.21
Denmark | 38.08 | 15.77 | 4.09 | 2.34 | 0.57
Japan | 57.18 | 21.94 | 4.93 | 2.85 | 0.62
Cameroon | 9.34 | 3.06 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.06
Group F
Italy | 80.48 | 45.7 | 20.81 | 11.66 | 5.13
Paraguay | 69.94 | 27 | 7.57 | 4.38 | 1.21
New Zealand | 17.15 | 2.55 | 0.28 | 0.16 | 0.02
Slovakia | 32.43 | 7.05 | 1.12 | 0.66 | 0.11
Group G
Brazil | 91.7 | 67.39 | 36.84 | 21.79 | 15.53
North Korea | 8.15 | 0.78 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.03
Cote d'Ivoire | 34.1 | 7.97 | 4.74 | 2.77 | 0.68
Portugal | 66.06 | 23.86 | 14.13 | 8.08 | 3.05
Group H
Spain | 89.79 | 65.47 | 39.91 | 21.67 | 14.8
Switzerland | 26.91 | 6.46 | 3.67 | 2.23 | 0.58
Honduras | 23.42 | 5.2 | 2.95 | 1.8 | 0.44
Chile | 59.88 | 22.87 | 13.09 | 7.68 | 3.11

Probability change in percent (%):
Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title
Group A
South Africa | 3.94 | 1.62 | 0.69 | 0.23 | 0.06
Mexico | 0.38 | -1.65 | -1.35 | -0.78 | -0.4
Uruguay | -1.12 | -2.03 | -1.16 | -0.47 | -0.18
France | -3.2 | -4.7 | -3.32 | -1.72 | -0.82
Group B
Argentina | 1.59 | 3.32 | 2.33 | 1.4 | 0.88
Nigeria | -1.65 | -0.61 | -0.29 | -0.09 | -0.02
South Korea | 4.32 | 6.06 | 3.63 | 1.61 | 1.61
Greece | -4.27 | -2.02 | -0.86 | -0.26 | -0.07
Group C
England | -1.85 | -4.2 | -2.22 | -1.94 | -1.54
USA | 1.48 | 2.29 | 1.21 | 0.83 | 0.38
Algeria | -0.6 | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.01 | 0
Slovenia | 0.99 | 0.89 | 0.49 | 0.25 | 0.08
Group D
Germany | 1.37 | 3.56 | 2.2 | 2.31 | 1.85
Australia | -6.89 | -4.81 | -2.53 | -1.11 | -0.42
Serbia | -4.67 | -3.39 | -1.77 | -0.88 | -0.37
Ghana | 10.18 | 5.84 | 3.03 | 1.18 | 0.39
Group E
Netherlands | 0.75 | 2.81 | 2.77 | 1.78 | 1.59
Denmark | -2.93 | -2.19 | -1 | -0.64 | -0.25
Japan | 4.01 | 2.68 | 0.88 | 0.46 | 0.11
Cameroon | -1.83 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.19 | -0.05
Group F
Italy | -1.43 | -3.81 | -3.31 | -1.94 | -1.41
Paraguay | 1.26 | 1.54 | 0.87 | 0.43 | 0.15
New Zealand | 0.06 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0
Slovakia | 0.11 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0
Group G
Brazil | 0 | 0 | -0.44 | -0.14 | -0.21
North Korea | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0
Cote d'Ivoire | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.02 | -0.02
Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | -0.06 | -0.06
Group H
Spain | 0 | 0 | 0.46 | -0.14 | -0.21
Switzerland | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01
Honduras | 0 | 0 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01
Chile | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | -0.05 | -0.06
 | 
Pages: 1
Prev: It's going to be a massacre - the best team vs the worst team in the World Cup
Next: World Cup Probability Newsticker - Day 5