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From: World Cup Ratings 2010 on 4 Jun 2010 06:17
During the World Cup, a daily probability update in
rec.sport.soccer is planned.
For latest news follow worldcupratings at Twitter.

World Cup Ratings 2010 uses Elo coefficients for a
thorough simulation of all possible results.
http://www.eloratings.net
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings

World Cup Ratings 2010 can be downloaded here for free:
http://www.file-upload.net/download-2455021/WorldCupRatings2010v1.0.zip.html

The current probabilities for succeeding - calculated with the
program World Cup Ratings 2010 - are as listed beneath.

Probabilities in percent (%):
Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title|3rd
Group A
South Africa | 14.8 | 4.05 | 0.92 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.14
Mexico | 68.9 | 42.7 | 23.0 | 10.3 | 4.52 | 5.87
Uruguay | 52.7 | 27.7 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.65 | 2.98
France | 63.4 | 37.0 | 18.7 | 7.90 | 3.18 | 4.68
Group B
Argentina | 77.5 | 45.5 | 25.9 | 12.4 | 5.64 | 6.52
Nigeria | 34.5 | 10.8 | 3.31 | 0.81 | 0.19 | 0.64
South Korea | 45.1 | 16.6 | 5.95 | 1.72 | 0.47 | 1.27
Greece | 42.7 | 15.3 | 5.28 | 1.48 | 0.39 | 1.10
Group C
England | 89.5 | 61.6 | 32.7 | 18.2 | 10.3 | 8.81
USA | 62.7 | 25.2 | 13.0 | 4.1 | 1.21 | 2.77
Algeria | 12.6 | 1.84 | 0.94 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.09
Slovenia | 35.0 | 9.24 | 4.75 | 0.97 | 0.18 | 0.76
Group D
Germany | 76.7 | 49.1 | 25.3 | 13.0 | 6.31 | 6.46
Australia | 43.1 | 17.9 | 9.36 | 2.96 | 0.88 | 2.06
Serbia | 56.4 | 27.42 | 14.2 | 5.39 | 1.92 | 3.40
Ghana | 23.7 | 7.49 | 3.92 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.72
Group E
Netherlands | 87.7 | 68.7 | 39.9 | 22.3 | 13.9 | 11.3
Denmark | 44.9 | 20.0 | 5.55 | 3.31 | 0.97 | 0.84
Japan | 36.0 | 14.4 | 3.46 | 2.08 | 0.53 | 0.46
Cameroon | 31.3 | 11.7 | 2.60 | 1.56 | 0.37 | 0.32
Group F
Italy | 88.1 | 55.0 | 26.7 | 15.3 | 7.43 | 6.32
Paraguay | 60.3 | 20.0 | 4.85 | 2.90 | 0.77 | 0.67
New Zealand | 17.0 | 2.44 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.01
Slovakia | 34.4 | 7.55 | 1.16 | 0.70 | 0.12 | 0.11
Group G
Brazil | 91.5 | 67.3 | 38.4 | 21.9 | 15.8 | 12.5
North Korea | 8.06 | 0.77 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.03 | 0.03
Ivory Coast | 33.8 | 7.99 | 4.65 | 2.78 | 0.70 | 0.62
Portugal | 66.5 | 24.5 | 14.2 | 8.29 | 3.25 | 2.79
Group H
Spain | 89.0 | 64.5 | 37.7 | 21.2 | 14.7 | 12.1
Switzerland | 28.2 | 7.19 | 4.14 | 2.48 | 0.70 | 0.60
Honduras | 26.9 | 6.65 | 3.83 | 2.30 | 0.63 | 0.55
Chile | 55.7 | 20.8 | 12.0 | 7.05 | 2.87 | 2.43
From: Futbolmetrix on 4 Jun 2010 07:07
On Jun 4, 1:17 pm, World Cup Ratings 2010
<worldcuprati...(a)hotmail.com> wrote:
> During the World Cup, a daily probability update in
> rec.sport.soccer is planned.
> For latest news follow worldcupratings at Twitter.

If you don't mind, I'm going to use these probabilities to create an
entry in the Sophisticated Prediction Contest. Any other computer-
generated entries are welcome.

D

From: KaiserD2 on 4 Jun 2010 14:12
Based on those probabilities it's going to be a pretty boring first
round. You know, in a genuine group of death, no one would have a .5
chance of qualifying. I wonder if that has ever happened based on
such a method.

DK



On Fri, 4 Jun 2010 03:17:56 -0700 (PDT), World Cup Ratings 2010
<worldcupratings(a)hotmail.com> wrote:

>During the World Cup, a daily probability update in
>rec.sport.soccer is planned.
>For latest news follow worldcupratings at Twitter.
>
>World Cup Ratings 2010 uses Elo coefficients for a
>thorough simulation of all possible results.
>http://www.eloratings.net
>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings
>
>World Cup Ratings 2010 can be downloaded here for free:
>http://www.file-upload.net/download-2455021/WorldCupRatings2010v1.0.zip.html
>
>The current probabilities for succeeding - calculated with the
>program World Cup Ratings 2010 - are as listed beneath.
>
>Probabilities in percent (%):
>Team | Last 16|Quarter-F.|Semi-F.|Final|Title|3rd
>Group A
>South Africa | 14.8 | 4.05 | 0.92 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.14
>Mexico | 68.9 | 42.7 | 23.0 | 10.3 | 4.52 | 5.87
>Uruguay | 52.7 | 27.7 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.65 | 2.98
>France | 63.4 | 37.0 | 18.7 | 7.90 | 3.18 | 4.68
>Group B
>Argentina | 77.5 | 45.5 | 25.9 | 12.4 | 5.64 | 6.52
>Nigeria | 34.5 | 10.8 | 3.31 | 0.81 | 0.19 | 0.64
>South Korea | 45.1 | 16.6 | 5.95 | 1.72 | 0.47 | 1.27
>Greece | 42.7 | 15.3 | 5.28 | 1.48 | 0.39 | 1.10
>Group C
>England | 89.5 | 61.6 | 32.7 | 18.2 | 10.3 | 8.81
>USA | 62.7 | 25.2 | 13.0 | 4.1 | 1.21 | 2.77
>Algeria | 12.6 | 1.84 | 0.94 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.09
>Slovenia | 35.0 | 9.24 | 4.75 | 0.97 | 0.18 | 0.76
>Group D
>Germany | 76.7 | 49.1 | 25.3 | 13.0 | 6.31 | 6.46
>Australia | 43.1 | 17.9 | 9.36 | 2.96 | 0.88 | 2.06
>Serbia | 56.4 | 27.42 | 14.2 | 5.39 | 1.92 | 3.40
>Ghana | 23.7 | 7.49 | 3.92 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.72
>Group E
>Netherlands | 87.7 | 68.7 | 39.9 | 22.3 | 13.9 | 11.3
>Denmark | 44.9 | 20.0 | 5.55 | 3.31 | 0.97 | 0.84
>Japan | 36.0 | 14.4 | 3.46 | 2.08 | 0.53 | 0.46
>Cameroon | 31.3 | 11.7 | 2.60 | 1.56 | 0.37 | 0.32
>Group F
>Italy | 88.1 | 55.0 | 26.7 | 15.3 | 7.43 | 6.32
>Paraguay | 60.3 | 20.0 | 4.85 | 2.90 | 0.77 | 0.67
>New Zealand | 17.0 | 2.44 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.01
>Slovakia | 34.4 | 7.55 | 1.16 | 0.70 | 0.12 | 0.11
>Group G
>Brazil | 91.5 | 67.3 | 38.4 | 21.9 | 15.8 | 12.5
>North Korea | 8.06 | 0.77 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.03 | 0.03
>Ivory Coast | 33.8 | 7.99 | 4.65 | 2.78 | 0.70 | 0.62
>Portugal | 66.5 | 24.5 | 14.2 | 8.29 | 3.25 | 2.79
>Group H
>Spain | 89.0 | 64.5 | 37.7 | 21.2 | 14.7 | 12.1
>Switzerland | 28.2 | 7.19 | 4.14 | 2.48 | 0.70 | 0.60
>Honduras | 26.9 | 6.65 | 3.83 | 2.30 | 0.63 | 0.55
>Chile | 55.7 | 20.8 | 12.0 | 7.05 | 2.87 | 2.43
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