From: MH on 5 Sep 2009 19:53
Possible second place teams, points vs. current last placed team
subtracted. Note added if last placed team still in some reasonable doubt.
Right now it seems most probable that the third placed team from group
1, 3 or 9 will miss out. Most probable by far is group 9 second placed
Denmark 11 (Max 17, Min 11 if second
Hungary 7 (Max 16,
Sweden 9 (Max 15,
Portugal 7 (Max 13,
Portugal can reach 19 points total, theoretically enough to top the
group. Unlikely, though, as that would imply Denmark taking only one
more point from three matches, away to Albania, home to Sweden and
Hungary. Should Denmark lose all three, Portugal would have a hard job
catching Sweden for first place. Portugal's best hope is for Denmark to
top the group, but even then, their 13 point (max) total for a second
placed team is very weak. They cannot afford to drop a point.
Most likely scenarios:
Denmark 21 (win draw and loss)
Sweden 21 (three wins)
Denmarks 22 (win, 2 draws)
Sweden 19 (2 wins 1 draw)
Portugal 19 (3 wins)
Denmark 24 (2 wins, draw)
Portugal 19 (3 wins)
Sweden 18 (2 wins)
Group 2 (either Luxembourg or Moldova could finish last, though they
have already played each other twice, so Moldova most likely).
Switzerland would benefit from Luxembourg being last, as they lost (at
home) to them.
Switzerland 10 Max 19
Greece 10 Max 16
Latvia 10 Max 16
Israel 6 Max 12
Possible Final table spreads
Either Switzerland or Greece should be OK (in top 8) as second placed
Slovakia 10 Max 14 if they finish second.
N. Ireland 8 Max 14
Poland 5 Max 14
Slovenia 8 Max 14
Czech Rep. 6 Max 12
This one is wide open and too hard to predict.
Czech republic has a reasonable chance of 18 points total, with 3 home
games remaining. If they win those, Poland and N. Ireland are in
trouble. (Each then having a max of 17 points, and thus behind Czech
republic, and most likely one of Slovakia or Slovenia as well). Even if
either Poland or N. Ireland end up second, a loss to the Czechs would
mean only 11 points as second place team, possibly not enough.
Group 4 Last placed team not clear yet, but should not make any
difference. Liechtenstein assumed for now.
Germany 13 Max 19 if second
Russia 12 Max 19 if second
Finland 10 Max 16
Wales 6 Max 12
Second placed team almost a dead cert for the playoffs.
Spain 18 (Max 18 if second)
Bosnia 12 (Max 21 if second)
Turkey 8 (Max 15 if second)
Belgium 4 (Max 10 if second)
Belgium may win their last 3 matches, but even so they are almost dead
with a Maxium of 10 points.
England 15 (Max 16 if second)
Croatia 11 (Max 17 if second)
Ukraine 11 (max 17 if second)
Belarus 3 (Max and Min 12 if second)
Group 7 (tight group still with 5 potential qualifiers)
Serbia 12 (Max 16 if second,
France 11 (Max 17 if second
Austria 4 (Max 13 if second
Lithuania 6 (Max 12 if second)
Romania 5 (Max 11 if second)
With France still to play the Faroes and Austria at home, it is hard to
see them not making at least second place. Serbia could possibly win the
group with three draws in their last three matches. Romania should still
Group 8 The last placed team could still change here, with three teams
in contention. None of the 3 is useless so they still might take points
off the top 3. Assuming Georgia will stay last for now (as they only
have two matches remaining, both away)
Italy 11 Max 15 if second
Ireland 10 Max 16 if second
Bulgaria 8 Max 14 if second
Group 9 (5 team group, results vs. Iceland count.
Scotland Min 10, Max 13 if they finish second.
Norway Max 10 Min 10 if they finish second
Macedonia Max 10, Min 10 if they finish second
Not looking good for any of these teams. Even if Scotland manage a
miracle home win vs the Dutch, they still have to hope for favourable
results elsewhere - Portugal, if they squeak into second, would beat
them on GD.
From: Futbolmetrix on 6 Sep 2009 16:15
"MH" <nospam(a)ucalgary.ca> wrote in message
Thanks for the nice post. So, assuming that Scotland/Norway end up as the
worst second placed teams, the pool of UEFA qualifiers looks as if it's
going to be:
Slovakia (but Group 3 is a complete toss-up)
Germany (but don't discount Russia's chances)
No clue who will make it out of Gr. 3, probably it's going be between Poland
and Czech Rep.
Ukraine (favorites over Croatia because they face England at home, with
England probably already qualified).
From: MH on 6 Sep 2009 16:54
> "MH" <nospam(a)ucalgary.ca> wrote in message
> Thanks for the nice post. So, assuming that Scotland/Norway end up as the
> worst second placed teams, the pool of UEFA qualifiers looks as if it's
> going to be:
> Direct qualifiers:
> Slovakia (but Group 3 is a complete toss-up)
> Germany (but don't discount Russia's chances)
> No clue who will make it out of Gr. 3, probably it's going be between Poland
> and Czech Rep.
> Ukraine (favorites over Croatia because they face England at home, with
> England probably already qualified).
A reasonable prediction. But I would still expect a few surprises.
Perhaps in group 1, possibly in groups 8 or 5 (for second place).
Only first time qualifiers still in with a chance are Solvakia and
Bosnia, though Macedonia may not be out mathematically yet.
From: Futbolmetrix on 7 Sep 2009 10:42
"MH" <nospam(a)ucalgary.ca> wrote in message
>> Direct qualifiers:
>> Slovakia (but Group 3 is a complete toss-up)
>> Germany (but don't discount Russia's chances)
>> No clue who will make it out of Gr. 3, probably it's going be between
>> Poland and Czech Rep.
>> Ukraine (favorites over Croatia because they face England at home, with
>> England probably already qualified).
By the way, if that's the way it unfolds, this is how things look in terms
of ex-ante seedings.
4 no.1 seeds (GER, ESP, ITA, NLD)
1 no.2 seed (ENG)
3 no.3 seeds (SWI, DEN, SER)
1 no.4 seed (SVK)
2 no.1 seeds (GRE, FRA)
3 no.2 seeds (SWE, RUS, POL)
2 no.3 seeds (UKR, IRL)
1 no.4 seed (BOS)
That would mean that 3 no.1 seeds wouldn't have even made it to the playoffs
(Portugal, Czech Republic and Croatia).
More evidence for the depth of UEFA or for how screwed up UEFA's seeding
From: Huw Morris on 7 Sep 2009 11:39
> That would mean that 3 no.1 seeds wouldn't have even made it to the
> playoffs (Portugal, Czech Republic and Croatia).
> More evidence for the depth of UEFA or for how screwed up UEFA's seeding
> system is?
You could test this by comparing the UEFA seedings at the time with the ELO
rankings at the time. If the ELO rankings are no better at predicting which
teams progress, then it's evidence of UEFA's strength in depth.
I predict that you'll find ELO rankings better than UEFA seedings, but
there will still be significant surprises.
In any case, let's see how these groups pan out before slating UEFA's
seeding. Czech Republic are by no means out of it, and Slovakia still have
work to do.