UEFA WC qualifying , worst second place team [R implied]
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From: MH on 5 Sep 2009 19:53 Possible second place teams, points vs. current last placed team subtracted. Note added if last placed team still in some reasonable doubt. Right now it seems most probable that the third placed team from group 1, 3 or 9 will miss out. Most probable by far is group 9 second placed team. Group I Denmark 11 (Max 17, Min 11 if second Hungary 7 (Max 16, Sweden 9 (Max 15, Portugal 7 (Max 13, Portugal can reach 19 points total, theoretically enough to top the group. Unlikely, though, as that would imply Denmark taking only one more point from three matches, away to Albania, home to Sweden and Hungary. Should Denmark lose all three, Portugal would have a hard job catching Sweden for first place. Portugal's best hope is for Denmark to top the group, but even then, their 13 point (max) total for a second placed team is very weak. They cannot afford to drop a point. Most likely scenarios: Denmark 21 (win draw and loss) Sweden 21 (three wins) Denmarks 22 (win, 2 draws) Sweden 19 (2 wins 1 draw) Portugal 19 (3 wins) Denmark 24 (2 wins, draw) Portugal 19 (3 wins) Sweden 18 (2 wins) Group 2 (either Luxembourg or Moldova could finish last, though they have already played each other twice, so Moldova most likely). Switzerland would benefit from Luxembourg being last, as they lost (at home) to them. Switzerland 10 Max 19 Greece 10 Max 16 Latvia 10 Max 16 Israel 6 Max 12 Possible Final table spreads Switzerland 21-25 Greece 20-22 Latvia 16-19 Israel 15-17 Either Switzerland or Greece should be OK (in top 8) as second placed finisher. Group 3 Slovakia 10 Max 14 if they finish second. N. Ireland 8 Max 14 Poland 5 Max 14 Slovenia 8 Max 14 Czech Rep. 6 Max 12 This one is wide open and too hard to predict. Czech republic has a reasonable chance of 18 points total, with 3 home games remaining. If they win those, Poland and N. Ireland are in trouble. (Each then having a max of 17 points, and thus behind Czech republic, and most likely one of Slovakia or Slovenia as well). Even if either Poland or N. Ireland end up second, a loss to the Czechs would mean only 11 points as second place team, possibly not enough. Group 4 Last placed team not clear yet, but should not make any difference. Liechtenstein assumed for now. Germany 13 Max 19 if second Russia 12 Max 19 if second Finland 10 Max 16 Wales 6 Max 12 Second placed team almost a dead cert for the playoffs. Group 5 Spain 18 (Max 18 if second) Bosnia 12 (Max 21 if second) Turkey 8 (Max 15 if second) Belgium 4 (Max 10 if second) Belgium may win their last 3 matches, but even so they are almost dead with a Maxium of 10 points. Group 6 England 15 (Max 16 if second) Croatia 11 (Max 17 if second) Ukraine 11 (max 17 if second) Belarus 3 (Max and Min 12 if second) Group 7 (tight group still with 5 potential qualifiers) Serbia 12 (Max 16 if second, France 11 (Max 17 if second Austria 4 (Max 13 if second Lithuania 6 (Max 12 if second) Romania 5 (Max 11 if second) With France still to play the Faroes and Austria at home, it is hard to see them not making at least second place. Serbia could possibly win the group with three draws in their last three matches. Romania should still finish 3rd. Group 8 The last placed team could still change here, with three teams in contention. None of the 3 is useless so they still might take points off the top 3. Assuming Georgia will stay last for now (as they only have two matches remaining, both away) Italy 11 Max 15 if second Ireland 10 Max 16 if second Bulgaria 8 Max 14 if second Group 9 (5 team group, results vs. Iceland count. Scotland Min 10, Max 13 if they finish second. Norway Max 10 Min 10 if they finish second Macedonia Max 10, Min 10 if they finish second Not looking good for any of these teams. Even if Scotland manage a miracle home win vs the Dutch, they still have to hope for favourable results elsewhere - Portugal, if they squeak into second, would beat them on GD.
From: Futbolmetrix on 6 Sep 2009 16:15 "MH" <nospam(a)ucalgary.ca> wrote in message news:4AA2FA0F.3020104(a)ucalgary.ca... Thanks for the nice post. So, assuming that Scotland/Norway end up as the worst second placed teams, the pool of UEFA qualifiers looks as if it's going to be: Direct qualifiers: Denmark Switzerland Slovakia (but Group 3 is a complete toss-up) Germany (but don't discount Russia's chances) Spain England Serbia Italy Netherlands Playoffs: Sweden Greece No clue who will make it out of Gr. 3, probably it's going be between Poland and Czech Rep. Russia Bosnia-Herzegovina Ukraine (favorites over Croatia because they face England at home, with England probably already qualified). France Ireland D
From: MH on 6 Sep 2009 16:54 Futbolmetrix wrote: > "MH" <nospam(a)ucalgary.ca> wrote in message > news:4AA2FA0F.3020104(a)ucalgary.ca... > > Thanks for the nice post. So, assuming that Scotland/Norway end up as the > worst second placed teams, the pool of UEFA qualifiers looks as if it's > going to be: > > > Direct qualifiers: > Denmark > Switzerland > Slovakia (but Group 3 is a complete toss-up) > Germany (but don't discount Russia's chances) > Spain > England > Serbia > Italy > Netherlands > > Playoffs: > Sweden > Greece > No clue who will make it out of Gr. 3, probably it's going be between Poland > and Czech Rep. > Russia > Bosnia-Herzegovina > Ukraine (favorites over Croatia because they face England at home, with > England probably already qualified). > France > Ireland A reasonable prediction. But I would still expect a few surprises. Perhaps in group 1, possibly in groups 8 or 5 (for second place). Only first time qualifiers still in with a chance are Solvakia and Bosnia, though Macedonia may not be out mathematically yet. > > > D > >
From: Futbolmetrix on 7 Sep 2009 10:42 "MH" <nospam(a)ucalgary.ca> wrote in message news:4AA42174.70501(a)ucalgary.ca... >> >> >> Direct qualifiers: >> Denmark >> Switzerland >> Slovakia (but Group 3 is a complete toss-up) >> Germany (but don't discount Russia's chances) >> Spain >> England >> Serbia >> Italy >> Netherlands >> >> Playoffs: >> Sweden >> Greece >> No clue who will make it out of Gr. 3, probably it's going be between >> Poland and Czech Rep. >> Russia >> Bosnia-Herzegovina >> Ukraine (favorites over Croatia because they face England at home, with >> England probably already qualified). >> France >> Ireland By the way, if that's the way it unfolds, this is how things look in terms of ex-ante seedings. Direct qualifiers: 4 no.1 seeds (GER, ESP, ITA, NLD) 1 no.2 seed (ENG) 3 no.3 seeds (SWI, DEN, SER) 1 no.4 seed (SVK) Playoffs: 2 no.1 seeds (GRE, FRA) 3 no.2 seeds (SWE, RUS, POL) 2 no.3 seeds (UKR, IRL) 1 no.4 seed (BOS) That would mean that 3 no.1 seeds wouldn't have even made it to the playoffs (Portugal, Czech Republic and Croatia). More evidence for the depth of UEFA or for how screwed up UEFA's seeding system is? D
From: Huw Morris on 7 Sep 2009 11:39
Futbolmetrix wrote: > That would mean that 3 no.1 seeds wouldn't have even made it to the > playoffs (Portugal, Czech Republic and Croatia). > > More evidence for the depth of UEFA or for how screwed up UEFA's seeding > system is? You could test this by comparing the UEFA seedings at the time with the ELO rankings at the time. If the ELO rankings are no better at predicting which teams progress, then it's evidence of UEFA's strength in depth. I predict that you'll find ELO rankings better than UEFA seedings, but there will still be significant surprises. In any case, let's see how these groups pan out before slating UEFA's seeding. Czech Republic are by no means out of it, and Slovakia still have work to do. Huw |