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From: milivella on 6 Mar 2010 06:21 Mark: > On Mar 5, 11:17 pm, Google Beta User <wanyik...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > I beleive the last first time finalist was in 1978? > > Argentina played Holland that year. Both of them had reached the final > before. Indeed refreshing the list of first time finalists is quite interesting: 1930: 2 = Uruguay, Argentina 1934: 2 = Italy, Czechoslovakia 1938: 1 = Hungary 1950: 1 = Brazil 1954: 1 = West Germany 1958: 1 = Sweden 1962: 0 1966: 1 = England 1970: 0 1974: 1 = Netherlands 1978: 0 1982: 0 1986: 0 1990: 0 1994: 0 1998: 1 = France 2002: 0 2006: 0 [I here assume that Germany = West Germany.] I.e. only in the second edition there were two first time finalists (and of course in the first edition!). In the last 8 editions, just one first timer. It would be nice to check if you pick x teams (they are now 198, but of course a lot less in the first editions... let's say 100?) and you pick 2 out of them 18 times, what the results are. I.e. how much inequal the WC is? [Daniele, have I to call your name loud or are you able to read between the lines? ;) ] -- Cheers milivella
From: milivella on 6 Mar 2010 06:23 Joachim Parsch: > Google Beta User schrieb: > > > Thinking of the past world cups, it's all well and good to call it a > > cup, but I don't remember any fluke finalist, in the past couple of > > years (though I'm still in disbeleif that ITaly managed to beat > > France). > > > I beleive the last first time finalist was in 1978? > > As Sven said, France 1998. But the last time before that > were Netherlands 1974. Before 74, there were only two WCs, > with both finalists being there before (1970 and 1962), > all the others had at least one new team. > > And there were only two WCs, where both finalists were > first time finalists: 30 and 34 (if you count the > last game of 1950 as a "final"). Quite boring since then ;-) You have been quicker than me! :) Thanks for the excellent summary. -- Cheers milivella
From: Benny on 6 Mar 2010 08:37 > Subject : This is what I think will happen in SA2010 > From : hsv83(a)der-ball-ist-rund.net > They have a title to defend, so they should at least make it to the > final. :) The FIGC made a huge mistake in bringing him back. I don't think Lippi cares, He can't motivate the team, picks mostly Juve players, Cannavaro is an absolute joke as captain. There's potential for a 2002 France level disaster. This should have been a transition cup with the coach preparing a young team for a real shot at Euro 2012. -- http://soccer-europe.com Rss feed : http://soccer-europe.com/RSS/News.xml
From: higgs on 6 Mar 2010 08:53 On Mar 6, 1:37 pm, hs...(a)der-ball-ist-rund.net (Sven Mischkies) wrote: > Futbolmetrix <futbolmet...(a)yahoo.com> wrote: > > "Lleo" <lleo...(a)lycos.com> wrote in message > >news:bb008104-12ad-4e80-818b-b2a935942b82(a)q16g2000yqq.googlegroups.com.... > > > > As for the others, well, I suppose everyone has a fair shot. Maybe > > > Italy can stop the Argentinians, but I'm not really betting on it. > > > You are overestimating Italy by a large amount. A quarterfinal spot for the > > azzurri will be an achievement. > > They have a title to defend, so they should at least make it to the > final. :) > > According to the Lord of Wank, they already are, the groups and other rounds being a mere formality.........
From: FF on 6 Mar 2010 09:45
milivella wrote: > > Nice idea. But my memories are pretty useless, so I go with Elo-leader- > the-day-before-the-World-Cup instead: > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings_leaders > ... > 2. This team never wins! OK, I know that the favorite can't always > win, but how many chances there are that it wins 0 out of 12 > tournaments? Weaufx gods, I repent of all my past doubts about your > existence and power! Looks like the ELO ratings aren't a good favorite indicator. No surprise actually. A related but more interesting fact IMO is that last 11 times (i.e. starting 1966) the current champions didn't defend their title. Statistically this has a similar low probability. Possible reasons: alternative WCup conditions (Europe / non-Europe); aging / renewal of the champion teams; diminished motivation. |