From: milivella on
Mark:

> On Mar 5, 11:17 pm, Google Beta User <wanyik...(a)gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > I beleive the last first time finalist was in 1978?
>
> Argentina played Holland that year. Both of them had reached the final
> before.

Indeed refreshing the list of first time finalists is quite
interesting:

1930: 2 = Uruguay, Argentina
1934: 2 = Italy, Czechoslovakia
1938: 1 = Hungary
1950: 1 = Brazil
1954: 1 = West Germany
1958: 1 = Sweden
1962: 0
1966: 1 = England
1970: 0
1974: 1 = Netherlands
1978: 0
1982: 0
1986: 0
1990: 0
1994: 0
1998: 1 = France
2002: 0
2006: 0

[I here assume that Germany = West Germany.]

I.e. only in the second edition there were two first time finalists
(and of course in the first edition!). In the last 8 editions, just
one first timer.

It would be nice to check if you pick x teams (they are now 198, but
of course a lot less in the first editions... let's say 100?) and you
pick 2 out of them 18 times, what the results are. I.e. how much
inequal the WC is? [Daniele, have I to call your name loud or are you
able to read between the lines? ;) ]

--
Cheers
milivella
From: milivella on
Joachim Parsch:

> Google Beta User schrieb:
>
> > Thinking of the past world cups, it's all well and good to call it a
> > cup, but I don't remember any fluke finalist, in the past couple of
> > years (though I'm still in disbeleif that ITaly managed to beat
> > France).
>
> > I beleive the last first time finalist was in 1978?
>
> As Sven said, France 1998. But the last time before that
> were Netherlands 1974. Before 74, there were only two WCs,
> with both finalists being there before (1970 and 1962),
> all the others had at least one new team.
>
> And there were only two WCs, where both finalists were
> first time finalists: 30 and 34 (if you count the
> last game of 1950 as a "final"). Quite boring since then ;-)

You have been quicker than me! :) Thanks for the excellent summary.

--
Cheers
milivella
From: Benny on
> Subject : This is what I think will happen in SA2010
> From : hsv83(a)der-ball-ist-rund.net

> They have a title to defend, so they should at least make it to the
> final. :)

The FIGC made a huge mistake in bringing him back. I don't think Lippi
cares, He can't motivate the team, picks mostly Juve players, Cannavaro
is an absolute joke as captain. There's potential for a 2002 France
level disaster. This should have been a transition cup with the coach
preparing a young team for a real shot at Euro 2012.


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From: higgs on
On Mar 6, 1:37 pm, hs...(a)der-ball-ist-rund.net (Sven Mischkies) wrote:
> Futbolmetrix <futbolmet...(a)yahoo.com> wrote:
> > "Lleo" <lleo...(a)lycos.com> wrote in message
> >news:bb008104-12ad-4e80-818b-b2a935942b82(a)q16g2000yqq.googlegroups.com....
>
> > > As for the others, well, I suppose everyone has a fair shot. Maybe
> > > Italy can stop the Argentinians, but I'm not really betting on it.
>
> > You are overestimating Italy by a large amount. A quarterfinal spot for the
> > azzurri will be an achievement.
>
> They have a title to defend, so they should at least make it to the
> final. :)
>
>

According to the Lord of Wank, they already are, the groups and other
rounds being a mere formality.........
From: FF on
milivella wrote:
>
> Nice idea. But my memories are pretty useless, so I go with Elo-leader-
> the-day-before-the-World-Cup instead:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings_leaders
> ...
> 2. This team never wins! OK, I know that the favorite can't always
> win, but how many chances there are that it wins 0 out of 12
> tournaments? Weaufx gods, I repent of all my past doubts about your
> existence and power!

Looks like the ELO ratings aren't a good favorite indicator. No
surprise actually.
A related but more interesting fact IMO is that last 11 times (i.e.
starting 1966) the current champions didn't defend their title.
Statistically this has a similar low probability. Possible reasons:
alternative WCup conditions (Europe / non-Europe); aging / renewal of
the champion teams; diminished motivation.
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