This is what I think will happen in SA2010
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From: milivella on 16 Mar 2010 05:28 Joachim Parsch: > Here's some more: obviously experience is underrated when > considering the chances to reach a WC final. The last WC final, > where there was no player on the field who had that special > experience before was 1994. Before that, we have to go back > to 1966 to find a final with 22 newcomers. Also in that > category: the finals of 30, 50, 54, 58, all in all just > 6 of the 18 finals (in 34, some Italians had in 1930 played > for Argentina, quite possibly the source of the currentFIFA rule, > that you have to choose once, for which country you want to > play). Very nice spotting! > > It would be nice to check if you pick x teams (they are now 198, but > > of course a lot less in the first editions... let's say 100?) and you > > pick 2 out of them 18 times, what the results are. I.e. how much > > inequal the WC is? [Daniele, have I to call your name loud or are you > > able to read between the lines? ;) ] > > You mean the probability, that only once there were two newcomers, > given a random draw? Yep. > It's low :-) Indeed. -- Cheers milivella
From: milivella on 16 Mar 2010 05:31
MH: > milivella wrote: > > > Indeed refreshing the list of first time finalists is quite > > interesting: > > > 1930: 2 = Uruguay, Argentina > > 1934: 2 = Italy, Czechoslovakia > > 1938: 1 = Hungary > > 1950: 1 = Brazil > > Not true, there WAS no final in 1950, it was a group stage. It was only > a coincidence that the top two teams met in the final round. You're right, sorry. I change my wording: "the list of the teams that were on one of the two top spots for the first time". -- Cheers milivella |