From: futbolmetrix on 12 Jul 2010 19:34 On Jul 12, 9:05 am, Jim Goloboy <jim.golo...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > Unfortunately, I badly underestimated Uruguay. If Ghana and Uruguay > had switched places, my score would have been 33.547...did Asamoah > Gyan cost me a place in the Hall of Sophistication, or would the AQB > score also have improved? You would have won outright. But then, if Ghana had won and Robben had buried his chance in the final, I would have been the first of the humans. In any case, if anybody wants to play around with other whatif scenarios, you can download the full Excel file with all the entries from http://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0BnrGmeGVqANNTM2MDBmM2YtN2M5Ny00ZjQ2LWEwYWMtMTZlM2M4NjRlMWY5&hl=en&authkey=CJXNsIQD or (Excel 19972003) http://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0BnrGmeGVqANMjgyOWU5MWYtNzI1NS00OWRmLWI0OTUtMjUxZDZjYTI0MGU3&hl=en&authkey=CIKngJcC (I know, it's google docs and it sucks. Sorry.) D
From: Myk Cameron on 13 Jul 2010 05:26 "Futbolmetrix" <futbolmetrix(a)yahoo.com> wrote in message news:i1eufu$ub1$1(a)news.eternalseptember.org... > AQB holds on to the first place he had after the end of the first round. > Congrats, Myk, you enter the Hall of Sophistication! > > And congrats to Jim Goloboy for a stunning second place, and for being the > first of the humans. Your entry was...erm.. a bit unorthodox (you assigned > Spain a probability of 1 to win the whole thing), but it paid off. Well > done to Werner too: fifth place and three computer simulations behind you. > > I will console myself with first place among humans who didn't assign any > zeros or ones. > > Congratulation to all other contestants for a fair and sophisticated > effort, and thank you for playing. > > > > Final Table > Rank Name Total Score > 1 AQB 33.7525 > 2 Jim Goloboy 34.215 > 3 Collective_Simulations 34.5756 > 4 Voros McCracken 34.6805 > 5 Werner Pichler 35.1609 > 6 ELO 35.5745 > 7 Castrol Football 35.7026 > 8 Chance de Gol 35.8936 > 9 Futbolmetrix 36.4845 > 10 Collective_Humans 36.7846 > 11 CHRIS HORYMSKI 38.1302 > 12 Jesus Petry 38.2043 > 13 Ll�o 38.5603 > 14 MH 39.0145 > 15 Joachim Parsch 39.5198 > 16 milivella 39.6157 > 17 Miguel 39.8449 > 18 Philipp Lucas 42.3915 > 19 Agnostic 42.9751 > 20 juanvazquez 43.9734 > 21 Alessandro Riolo 49.519 > 22 Olcay Kara 71.6446 > 23 Luiz Mello 106.644 > 24 Myk 107.007 > 25 JK 107.194 > 26 Anders T 115.511 > 27 7h(a)ch 174.223 > 28 Jussi Uosukainen 249.645 > 29 Nate Silver SPi 975.708 > 30 Binder Dundat 1187.68 > 31 Mark V. 1187.8 > 32 El Kot 1202.47 > Thanks Daniele, but you can hold off adding me to the Hall of Sophistication as I came 24th and couldn't even beat the agnostic predictions! I'm happy to have AQB added to the Hall though  it seems to be having a good run of form in predictions contests. Taking the wisdom of crowds a step further, how would a collective humans plus machines have gone? Cheers, Myk
From: Amir on 13 Jul 2010 12:37 On Jul 13, 11:26 am, "Myk Cameron" <m...(a)image.co.nz> wrote: > "Futbolmetrix" <futbolmet...(a)yahoo.com> wrote in message > > news:i1eufu$ub1$1(a)news.eternalseptember.org... > > > > > AQB holds on to the first place he had after the end of the first round.. > > Congrats, Myk, you enter the Hall of Sophistication! > > > And congrats to Jim Goloboy for a stunning second place, and for being the > > first of the humans. Your entry was...erm.. a bit unorthodox (you assigned > > Spain a probability of 1 to win the whole thing), but it paid off. Well > > done to Werner too: fifth place and three computer simulations behind you. > > > I will console myself with first place among humans who didn't assign any > > zeros or ones. > > > Congratulation to all other contestants for a fair and sophisticated > > effort, and thank you for playing. > > > Final Table > > Rank Name Total Score > > 1 AQB 33.7525 > > 2 Jim Goloboy 34.215 > > 3 Collective_Simulations 34.5756 > > 4 Voros McCracken 34.6805 > > 5 Werner Pichler 35.1609 > > 6 ELO 35.5745 > > 7 Castrol Football 35.7026 > > 8 Chance de Gol 35.8936 > > 9 Futbolmetrix 36.4845 > > 10 Collective_Humans 36.7846 > > 11 CHRIS HORYMSKI 38.1302 > > 12 Jesus Petry 38.2043 > > 13 Lléo 38.5603 > > 14 MH 39.0145 > > 15 Joachim Parsch 39.5198 > > 16 milivella 39.6157 > > 17 Miguel 39.8449 > > 18 Philipp Lucas 42.3915 > > 19 Agnostic 42.9751 > > 20 juanvazquez 43.9734 > > 21 Alessandro Riolo 49.519 > > 22 Olcay Kara 71.6446 > > 23 Luiz Mello 106.644 > > 24 Myk 107.007 > > 25 JK 107.194 > > 26 Anders T 115.511 > > 27 7h(a)ch 174.223 > > 28 Jussi Uosukainen 249.645 > > 29 Nate Silver SPi 975.708 > > 30 Binder Dundat 1187.68 > > 31 Mark V. 1187.8 > > 32 El Kot 1202.47 > > Thanks Daniele, but you can hold off adding me to the Hall of Sophistication > as I came 24th and couldn't even beat the agnostic predictions! I'm happy to > have AQB added to the Hall though  it seems to be having a good run of form > in predictions contests. > > Taking the wisdom of crowds a step further, how would a collective humans > plus machines have gone? > > Cheers, > Myk Another way to rank the sophisticated predictions is by looking at all rounds the way round1 results are calculated. That is for quarter finals for example, say we predicted team x to go at least to the quarter finals with probabilty p and it reaches the finals, then we will still get log(p) points for that team for the quarter finals. The final table is not that different of course: 1 AQB 42.42708614 2 Jim Goloboy 44.87525749 3 Collective_Simulations 44.92461623 4 Chance de Gol 45.76302128 5 Voros McCracken 45.77138329 6 Castrol Football 46.76509099 7 ELO 47.5198605 8 Lléo 47.75471281 9 Collective_Humans 48.08496358 10 Werner Pichler 48.66160812 11 Futbolmetrix 49.25603109 12 Joachim Parsch 49.47525365 13 MH 49.75907932 14 Jesus Petry 50.39180703 15 CHRIS HORYMSKI 50.60545939 16 Miguel 53.29302169 17 milivella 55.6450501 18 Philipp Lucas 56.08839943 19 juanvazquez 59.32919146 20 Alessandro Riolo 59.56352476 21 Agnostic 64.1633582 22 Olcay Kara 78.34432122 23 JK 83.33953582 24 Nate Silver SPi 97.50844721 25 Mark V. 111.079253 26 Myk 119.7058048 27 Anders T 135.3306245 28 7h(a)ch 184.6787236 29 Luiz Mello 190.5443084 30 Jussi Uosukainen 262.0818284 31 El Kot 286.0200997 32 Binder Dundat 322.3858611 Here is the file: http://www.2shared.com/document/1weQOtm6/SophisticatedPredictionContest.html
From: Amir on 13 Jul 2010 12:43 On Jul 12, 1:32 pm, "Futbolmetrix" <futbolmet...(a)yahoo.com> wrote: > AQB holds on to the first place he had after the end of the first round. > Congrats, Myk, you enter the Hall of Sophistication! > > And congrats to Jim Goloboy for a stunning second place, and for being the > first of the humans. Your entry was...erm.. a bit unorthodox (you assigned > Spain a probability of 1 to win the whole thing), but it paid off. Well done > to Werner too: fifth place and three computer simulations behind you. > > I will console myself with first place among humans who didn't assign any > zeros or ones. > > Congratulation to all other contestants for a fair and sophisticated effort, > and thank you for playing. > > Final Table > Rank Name Total Score > 1 AQB 33.7525 > 2 Jim Goloboy 34.215 > 3 Collective_Simulations 34.5756 > 4 Voros McCracken 34.6805 > 5 Werner Pichler 35.1609 > 6 ELO 35.5745 > 7 Castrol Football 35.7026 > 8 Chance de Gol 35.8936 > 9 Futbolmetrix 36.4845 > 10 Collective_Humans 36.7846 > 11 CHRIS HORYMSKI 38.1302 > 12 Jesus Petry 38.2043 > 13 Lléo 38.5603 > 14 MH 39.0145 > 15 Joachim Parsch 39.5198 > 16 milivella 39.6157 > 17 Miguel 39.8449 > 18 Philipp Lucas 42.3915 > 19 Agnostic 42.9751 > 20 juanvazquez 43.9734 > 21 Alessandro Riolo 49.519 > 22 Olcay Kara 71.6446 > 23 Luiz Mello 106.644 > 24 Myk 107.007 > 25 JK 107.194 > 26 Anders T 115.511 > 27 7h(a)ch 174.223 > 28 Jussi Uosukainen 249.645 > 29 Nate Silver SPi 975.708 > 30 Binder Dundat 1187.68 > 31 Mark V. 1187.8 > 32 El Kot 1202.47 > > AQB's winning entry: > > P_R1 P_R16 P_QF P_SF P_LF P_WF > A South Africa .5836 .2350 .1044 .0586 .0134 .0049 > France .4217 .3800 .1113 .0649 .0158 .0061 > Uruguay .4343 .2671 .1474 .1016 .0324 .0174 > Mexico .5604 .1298 .1509 .1055 .0344 .0190 > 2.000 > OK > B Argentina .1864 .2918 .1907 .1911 .0740 .0660 > Greece .7219 .1849 .0650 .0242 .0034 .0006 > Nigeria .5721 .2469 .1099 .0552 .0122 .0038 > South Korea .5196 .2646 .1251 .0681 .0167 .0060 > 2.000 > 2.000 > OK > C England .1001 .2891 .2136 .2111 .1000 .0862 > Slovenia .6976 .2007 .0718 .0265 .0029 .0005 > Algeria .7604 .1683 .0531 .0165 .0015 .0002 > United States .4419 .3029 .1487 .0820 .0179 .0066 > > 2.000 > D Germany .3537 .2890 .1709 .1241 .0393 .0231 > Serbia .4345 .2839 .1467 .0954 .0268 .0127 > Ghana .7109 .1957 .0635 .0258 .0034 .0006 > Australia .5009 .2705 .1269 .0753 .0188 .0075 > 2.000 > 2.000 > OK > E Netherlands .0672 .2146 .3766 .1282 .1122 .1012 > Denmark .6289 .2238 .1336 .0097 .0034 .0007 > Cameroon .6173 .2285 .1394 .0104 .0037 .0007 > Japan .6866 .1991 .1054 .0066 .0020 .0003 > > 2.000 > F Italy .2238 .3309 .3176 .0652 .0401 .0224 > Slovakia .6422 .2552 .0931 .0070 .0021 .0003 > Paraguay .3943 .3448 .2094 .0317 .0149 .0049 > New Zealand .7397 .2031 .0536 .0029 .0007 .0001 > 2.000 > 2.000 > OK > G Brazil .0568 .3232 .1775 .1255 .1370 .1799 > Portugal .4048 .4319 .0808 .0442 .0256 .0127 > Cote d'Ivoire .5815 .3348 .0468 .0221 .0108 .0039 > Korea DPR .9569 .0425 .0005 .0001 .0000 .0000 > > 2.000 > H Spain .0000 .2158 .0998 .1340 .1759 .3745 > Switzerland .8631 .1205 .0124 .0029 .0009 .0001 > Chile .2449 .4321 .1462 .0821 .0575 .0371 > Honduras .8919 .0992 .0071 .0014 .0004 .0000 A better way IMO to rank the predictions is giving every round points as in round 1 results, that is if team A is predicted to go at least to the quarter finals with probability p and it reaches the finals, for the quarter final points logp points will be given. That's because with the current method a lot of information is not entered into the calculation. The final table would be: 1 AQB 42.42708614 2 Jim Goloboy 44.87525749 3 Collective_Simulations 44.92461623 4 Chance de Gol 45.76302128 5 Voros McCracken 45.77138329 6 Castrol Football 46.76509099 7 ELO 47.5198605 8 Lléo 47.75471281 9 Collective_Humans 48.08496358 10 Werner Pichler 48.66160812 11 Futbolmetrix 49.25603109 12 Joachim Parsch 49.47525365 13 MH 49.75907932 14 Jesus Petry 50.39180703 15 CHRIS HORYMSKI 50.60545939 16 Miguel 53.29302169 17 milivella 55.6450501 18 Philipp Lucas 56.08839943 19 juanvazquez 59.32919146 20 Alessandro Riolo 59.56352476 21 Agnostic 64.1633582 22 Olcay Kara 78.34432122 23 JK 83.33953582 24 Nate Silver SPi 97.50844721 25 Mark V. 111.079253 26 Myk 119.7058048 27 Anders T 135.3306245 28 7h(a)ch 184.6787236 29 Luiz Mello 190.5443084 30 Jussi Uosukainen 262.0818284 31 El Kot 286.0200997 32 Binder Dundat 322.3858611 Here is a link for an excel file http://www.2shared.com/document/1weQOtm6/SophisticatedPredictionContest.html
From: milivella on 20 Jul 2010 08:07 Futbolmetrix: > AQB holds on to the first place he had after the end of the first round. > Congrats, Myk, you enter the Hall of Sophistication! > > And congrats to Jim Goloboy for a stunning second place, and for being the > first of the humans. Congratulations to both! > I will console myself with first place among humans who didn't assign any > zeros or ones. You also win the award for inventing the most improbable award. :) > Congratulation to all other contestants for a fair and sophisticated effort, > and thank you for playing. Thank you for managing the whole thing! > Final Table > Rank Name Total Score > 1 AQB 33.7525 > 2 Jim Goloboy 34.215 > 3 Collective_Simulations 34.5756 > 4 Voros McCracken 34.6805 > 5 Werner Pichler 35.1609 > 6 ELO 35.5745 > 7 Castrol Football 35.7026 > 8 Chance de Gol 35.8936 > 9 Futbolmetrix 36.4845 > 10 Collective_Humans 36.7846 Humans have improved since 1st round, but this remains the algorithm WC. Wisdom of the masses (= collective entries) didn't perform badly at all. > 16 milivella 39.6157 Expected boring placement. At least better than > 19 Agnostic 42.9751 ....  Cheers milivella
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