From: futbolmetrix on
On Jul 12, 9:05 am, Jim Goloboy <jim.golo...(a)gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Unfortunately, I badly underestimated Uruguay. If Ghana and Uruguay
> had switched places, my score would have been 33.547...did Asamoah
> Gyan cost me a place in the Hall of Sophistication, or would the AQB
> score also have improved?

You would have won outright. But then, if Ghana had won and Robben had
buried his chance in the final, I would have been the first of the
humans.

In any case, if anybody wants to play around with other what-if
scenarios, you can download the full Excel file with all the entries
from

http://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B-nrGmeGVqANNTM2MDBmM2YtN2M5Ny00ZjQ2LWEwYWMtMTZlM2M4NjRlMWY5&hl=en&authkey=CJXNsIQD

or (Excel 1997-2003)

http://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B-nrGmeGVqANMjgyOWU5MWYtNzI1NS00OWRmLWI0OTUtMjUxZDZjYTI0MGU3&hl=en&authkey=CIKngJcC

(I know, it's google docs and it sucks. Sorry.)

D
From: Myk Cameron on
"Futbolmetrix" <futbolmetrix(a)yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:i1eufu$ub1$1(a)news.eternal-september.org...
> AQB holds on to the first place he had after the end of the first round.
> Congrats, Myk, you enter the Hall of Sophistication!
>
> And congrats to Jim Goloboy for a stunning second place, and for being the
> first of the humans. Your entry was...erm.. a bit unorthodox (you assigned
> Spain a probability of 1 to win the whole thing), but it paid off. Well
> done to Werner too: fifth place and three computer simulations behind you.
>
> I will console myself with first place among humans who didn't assign any
> zeros or ones.
>
> Congratulation to all other contestants for a fair and sophisticated
> effort, and thank you for playing.
>
>
>
> Final Table
> Rank Name Total Score
> 1 AQB -33.7525
> 2 Jim Goloboy -34.215
> 3 Collective_Simulations -34.5756
> 4 Voros McCracken -34.6805
> 5 Werner Pichler -35.1609
> 6 ELO -35.5745
> 7 Castrol Football -35.7026
> 8 Chance de Gol -35.8936
> 9 Futbolmetrix -36.4845
> 10 Collective_Humans -36.7846
> 11 CHRIS HORYMSKI -38.1302
> 12 Jesus Petry -38.2043
> 13 Ll�o -38.5603
> 14 MH -39.0145
> 15 Joachim Parsch -39.5198
> 16 milivella -39.6157
> 17 Miguel -39.8449
> 18 Philipp Lucas -42.3915
> 19 Agnostic -42.9751
> 20 juanvazquez -43.9734
> 21 Alessandro Riolo -49.519
> 22 Olcay Kara -71.6446
> 23 Luiz Mello -106.644
> 24 Myk -107.007
> 25 JK -107.194
> 26 Anders T -115.511
> 27 7h(a)ch -174.223
> 28 Jussi Uosukainen -249.645
> 29 Nate Silver SPi -975.708
> 30 Binder Dundat -1187.68
> 31 Mark V. -1187.8
> 32 El Kot -1202.47
>


Thanks Daniele, but you can hold off adding me to the Hall of Sophistication
as I came 24th and couldn't even beat the agnostic predictions! I'm happy to
have AQB added to the Hall though - it seems to be having a good run of form
in predictions contests.

Taking the wisdom of crowds a step further, how would a collective humans
plus machines have gone?


Cheers,
Myk

From: Amir on
On Jul 13, 11:26 am, "Myk Cameron" <m...(a)image.co.nz> wrote:
> "Futbolmetrix" <futbolmet...(a)yahoo.com> wrote in message
>
> news:i1eufu$ub1$1(a)news.eternal-september.org...
>
>
>
> > AQB holds on to the first place he had after the end of the first round..
> > Congrats, Myk, you enter the Hall of Sophistication!
>
> > And congrats to Jim Goloboy for a stunning second place, and for being the
> > first of the humans. Your entry was...erm.. a bit unorthodox (you assigned
> > Spain a probability of 1 to win the whole thing), but it paid off. Well
> > done to Werner too: fifth place and three computer simulations behind you.
>
> > I will console myself with first place among humans who didn't assign any
> > zeros or ones.
>
> > Congratulation to all other contestants for a fair and sophisticated
> > effort, and thank you for playing.
>
> >      Final Table
> >      Rank Name Total Score
> >      1 AQB -33.7525
> >      2 Jim Goloboy -34.215
> >      3 Collective_Simulations -34.5756
> >      4 Voros McCracken -34.6805
> >      5 Werner Pichler -35.1609
> >      6 ELO -35.5745
> >      7 Castrol Football -35.7026
> >      8 Chance de Gol -35.8936
> >      9 Futbolmetrix -36.4845
> >      10 Collective_Humans -36.7846
> >      11 CHRIS HORYMSKI -38.1302
> >      12 Jesus Petry -38.2043
> >      13 Lléo -38.5603
> >      14 MH -39.0145
> >      15 Joachim Parsch -39.5198
> >      16 milivella -39.6157
> >      17 Miguel -39.8449
> >      18 Philipp Lucas -42.3915
> >      19 Agnostic -42.9751
> >      20 juanvazquez -43.9734
> >      21 Alessandro Riolo -49.519
> >      22 Olcay Kara -71.6446
> >      23 Luiz Mello -106.644
> >      24 Myk -107.007
> >      25 JK -107.194
> >      26 Anders T -115.511
> >      27 7h(a)ch -174.223
> >      28 Jussi Uosukainen -249.645
> >      29 Nate Silver SPi -975.708
> >      30 Binder Dundat -1187.68
> >      31 Mark V. -1187.8
> >      32 El Kot -1202.47
>
> Thanks Daniele, but you can hold off adding me to the Hall of Sophistication
> as I came 24th and couldn't even beat the agnostic predictions! I'm happy to
> have AQB added to the Hall though - it seems to be having a good run of form
> in predictions contests.
>
> Taking the wisdom of crowds a step further, how would a collective humans
> plus machines have gone?
>
> Cheers,
> Myk

Another way to rank the sophisticated predictions is by looking at all
rounds the way round1 results are calculated.
That is for quarter finals for example, say we predicted team x to go
at least to the quarter finals with probabilty p and it reaches the
finals, then we will still get -log(p) points for that team for the
quarter finals.
The final table is not that different of course:

1 AQB -42.42708614
2 Jim Goloboy -44.87525749
3 Collective_Simulations -44.92461623
4 Chance de Gol -45.76302128
5 Voros McCracken -45.77138329
6 Castrol Football -46.76509099
7 ELO -47.5198605
8 Lléo -47.75471281
9 Collective_Humans -48.08496358
10 Werner Pichler -48.66160812
11 Futbolmetrix -49.25603109
12 Joachim Parsch -49.47525365
13 MH -49.75907932
14 Jesus Petry -50.39180703
15 CHRIS HORYMSKI -50.60545939
16 Miguel -53.29302169
17 milivella -55.6450501
18 Philipp Lucas -56.08839943
19 juanvazquez -59.32919146
20 Alessandro Riolo -59.56352476
21 Agnostic -64.1633582
22 Olcay Kara -78.34432122
23 JK -83.33953582
24 Nate Silver SPi -97.50844721
25 Mark V. -111.079253
26 Myk -119.7058048
27 Anders T -135.3306245
28 7h(a)ch -184.6787236
29 Luiz Mello -190.5443084
30 Jussi Uosukainen -262.0818284
31 El Kot -286.0200997
32 Binder Dundat -322.3858611

Here is the file:

http://www.2shared.com/document/1weQOtm6/SophisticatedPredictionContest.html
From: Amir on
On Jul 12, 1:32 pm, "Futbolmetrix" <futbolmet...(a)yahoo.com> wrote:
> AQB holds on to the first place he had after the end of the first round.
> Congrats, Myk, you enter the Hall of Sophistication!
>
> And congrats to Jim Goloboy for a stunning second place, and for being the
> first of the humans. Your entry was...erm.. a bit unorthodox (you assigned
> Spain a probability of 1 to win the whole thing), but it paid off. Well done
> to Werner too: fifth place and three computer simulations behind you.
>
> I will console myself with first place among humans who didn't assign any
> zeros or ones.
>
> Congratulation to all other contestants for a fair and sophisticated effort,
> and thank you for playing.
>
>       Final Table
>       Rank Name Total Score
>       1 AQB -33.7525
>       2 Jim Goloboy -34.215
>       3 Collective_Simulations -34.5756
>       4 Voros McCracken -34.6805
>       5 Werner Pichler -35.1609
>       6 ELO -35.5745
>       7 Castrol Football -35.7026
>       8 Chance de Gol -35.8936
>       9 Futbolmetrix -36.4845
>       10 Collective_Humans -36.7846
>       11 CHRIS HORYMSKI -38.1302
>       12 Jesus Petry -38.2043
>       13 Lléo -38.5603
>       14 MH -39.0145
>       15 Joachim Parsch -39.5198
>       16 milivella -39.6157
>       17 Miguel -39.8449
>       18 Philipp Lucas -42.3915
>       19 Agnostic -42.9751
>       20 juanvazquez -43.9734
>       21 Alessandro Riolo -49.519
>       22 Olcay Kara -71.6446
>       23 Luiz Mello -106.644
>       24 Myk -107.007
>       25 JK -107.194
>       26 Anders T -115.511
>       27 7h(a)ch -174.223
>       28 Jussi Uosukainen -249.645
>       29 Nate Silver SPi -975.708
>       30 Binder Dundat -1187.68
>       31 Mark V. -1187.8
>       32 El Kot -1202.47
>
> AQB's winning entry:
>
>       P_R1 P_R16 P_QF P_SF P_LF P_WF
>       A South Africa .5836 .2350 .1044 .0586 .0134 .0049
>      France .4217 .3800 .1113 .0649 .0158 .0061
>      Uruguay .4343 .2671 .1474 .1016 .0324 .0174
>      Mexico .5604 .1298 .1509 .1055 .0344 .0190
>       2.000
>       OK
>       B Argentina .1864 .2918 .1907 .1911 .0740 .0660
>      Greece .7219 .1849 .0650 .0242 .0034 .0006
>      Nigeria .5721 .2469 .1099 .0552 .0122 .0038
>      South Korea .5196 .2646 .1251 .0681 .0167 .0060
>       2.000
>        2.000
>        OK
>       C England .1001 .2891 .2136 .2111 .1000 .0862
>      Slovenia .6976 .2007 .0718 .0265 .0029 .0005
>      Algeria .7604 .1683 .0531 .0165 .0015 .0002
>      United States .4419 .3029 .1487 .0820 .0179 .0066
>
>       2.000
>       D Germany .3537 .2890 .1709 .1241 .0393 .0231
>      Serbia .4345 .2839 .1467 .0954 .0268 .0127
>      Ghana .7109 .1957 .0635 .0258 .0034 .0006
>      Australia .5009 .2705 .1269 .0753 .0188 .0075
>       2.000
>        2.000
>        OK
>       E Netherlands .0672 .2146 .3766 .1282 .1122 .1012
>      Denmark .6289 .2238 .1336 .0097 .0034 .0007
>      Cameroon .6173 .2285 .1394 .0104 .0037 .0007
>      Japan .6866 .1991 .1054 .0066 .0020 .0003
>
>       2.000
>       F Italy .2238 .3309 .3176 .0652 .0401 .0224
>      Slovakia .6422 .2552 .0931 .0070 .0021 .0003
>      Paraguay .3943 .3448 .2094 .0317 .0149 .0049
>      New Zealand .7397 .2031 .0536 .0029 .0007 .0001
>       2.000
>        2.000
>        OK
>       G Brazil .0568 .3232 .1775 .1255 .1370 .1799
>      Portugal .4048 .4319 .0808 .0442 .0256 .0127
>      Cote d'Ivoire .5815 .3348 .0468 .0221 .0108 .0039
>      Korea DPR .9569 .0425 .0005 .0001 .0000 .0000
>
>       2.000
>       H Spain .0000 .2158 .0998 .1340 .1759 .3745
>      Switzerland .8631 .1205 .0124 .0029 .0009 .0001
>      Chile .2449 .4321 .1462 .0821 .0575 .0371
>      Honduras .8919 .0992 .0071 .0014 .0004 .0000


A better way IMO to rank the predictions is giving every round points
as in round 1 results, that is if team A is predicted to go at least
to the quarter finals with probability p and it reaches the finals,
for the quarter final points -logp points will be given.
That's because with the current method a lot of information is not
entered into the calculation.

The final table would be:
1 AQB -42.42708614
2 Jim Goloboy -44.87525749
3 Collective_Simulations -44.92461623
4 Chance de Gol -45.76302128
5 Voros McCracken -45.77138329
6 Castrol Football -46.76509099
7 ELO -47.5198605
8 Lléo -47.75471281
9 Collective_Humans -48.08496358
10 Werner Pichler -48.66160812
11 Futbolmetrix -49.25603109
12 Joachim Parsch -49.47525365
13 MH -49.75907932
14 Jesus Petry -50.39180703
15 CHRIS HORYMSKI -50.60545939
16 Miguel -53.29302169
17 milivella -55.6450501
18 Philipp Lucas -56.08839943
19 juanvazquez -59.32919146
20 Alessandro Riolo -59.56352476
21 Agnostic -64.1633582
22 Olcay Kara -78.34432122
23 JK -83.33953582
24 Nate Silver SPi -97.50844721
25 Mark V. -111.079253
26 Myk -119.7058048
27 Anders T -135.3306245
28 7h(a)ch -184.6787236
29 Luiz Mello -190.5443084
30 Jussi Uosukainen -262.0818284
31 El Kot -286.0200997
32 Binder Dundat -322.3858611


Here is a link for an excel file
http://www.2shared.com/document/1weQOtm6/SophisticatedPredictionContest.html
From: milivella on
Futbolmetrix:

> AQB holds on to the first place he had after the end of the first round.
> Congrats, Myk, you enter the Hall of Sophistication!
>
> And congrats to Jim Goloboy for a stunning second place, and for being the
> first of the humans.

Congratulations to both!

> I will console myself with first place among humans who didn't assign any
> zeros or ones.

You also win the award for inventing the most improbable award. :)

> Congratulation to all other contestants for a fair and sophisticated effort,
> and thank you for playing.

Thank you for managing the whole thing!

>       Final Table
>       Rank Name Total Score
>       1 AQB -33.7525
>       2 Jim Goloboy -34.215
>       3 Collective_Simulations -34.5756
>       4 Voros McCracken -34.6805
>       5 Werner Pichler -35.1609
>       6 ELO -35.5745
>       7 Castrol Football -35.7026
>       8 Chance de Gol -35.8936
>       9 Futbolmetrix -36.4845
>       10 Collective_Humans -36.7846

Humans have improved since 1st round, but this remains the algorithm
WC. Wisdom of the masses (= collective entries) didn't perform badly
at all.

>       16 milivella -39.6157

Expected boring placement. At least better than

>       19 Agnostic -42.9751

....

--
Cheers
milivella