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From: milivella on 27 Jun 2010 07:15
Futbolmetrix:

> And the winner is...

> AQB's computer simulation, narrowly edging out 6 other computer-generated
> predictions!

Trying to find why... The 5 NTs that were given more chances to go
through by simulations when compared to humans (I'm considering their
respective collective data, and computing the difference between
natural logarithms) were:
1. Uruguay
2. Brazil
3. Paraguay
4. South Korea
5. Japan
They all went through.

The 7 NTs that we the humans preferred when compared to simulations
were:
1. Argentina
2. South Africa
3. Slovakia
4. Germany
5. Cameroon
6. Italy
7. France
Four of which went out.

So I'd say that simulations defeated us because predicted the good
results by South American (Paraguay, Uruguay, bolder about Brazil) and
Asian (South Korea, Japan) teams and the bad results by African (South
Africa, Cameroon) and "big" European teams (Italy, France). Good work,
HAL!

--
Cheers
milivella
From: Clément on 27 Jun 2010 16:51
"milivella" escreveu na mensagem
news:db746dd1-c98b-44ec-a5df-ffcf67236623(a)z10g2000yqb.googlegroups.com...
>
> So I'd say that simulations defeated us because predicted the good
> results by South American (Paraguay, Uruguay, bolder about Brazil) and
> Asian (South Korea, Japan) teams and the bad results by African (South
> Africa, Cameroon) and "big" European teams (Italy, France). Good work,
> HAL!

In other words, we humans are more susceptible to ideas like "the hosts
never go out in the group stage", or "Italy are bad, but they are Italy and
they always find a way to win", or conversely "Uruguay are good, but they
always find a way to choke".

Simulations, on the other hand, stick to the facts!


Abra�o,

Luiz Mello

From: Werner Pichler on 28 Jun 2010 14:20
On 25 Jun., 23:02, "Futbolmetrix" <futbolmet...(a)yahoo.com> wrote:
> And the winner is...
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> AQB's computer simulation, narrowly edging out 6 other computer-generated
> predictions! Congratulations Myk!
>
> And congratulations to Werner Pichler for being first of the humans, even
> though that only means 8th place.
>

Defying the odds, especially those of Italy, I will continue
to fight for humanity's rightful place in the Great Hall of
Sophistication!

Although I hope this doesn't mean Arnold Schwarzenegger
will be sent back through time to prevent me being born.
We do come from the same city, after all.


Ciao,
Werner
From: Myk Cameron on 4 Jul 2010 17:45
"Futbolmetrix" <futbolmetrix(a)yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:i035hf$4vh$1(a)news.eternal-september.org...
> And the winner is...
>
> .
>
> AQB's computer simulation, narrowly edging out 6 other computer-generated
> predictions! Congratulations Myk!
>
> And congratulations to Werner Pichler for being first of the humans, even
> though that only means 8th place.
>
> Final standings:
>
> Rank Name Round 1 Score
> 1 AQB -16.35158528
> 2 Voros McCracken -16.74130976
> 3 ELO -16.80611957
> 4 Collective_Simulations -16.84379717
> 5 Nate Silver SPi -17.71811951


Awesome! I missed this earlier post. Bragging rights over the other computer
simulations!


Myk


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