Probabilities of World Cup victory (9 June 2010)
in [World Football]
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From: Myk Cameron on 9 Jun 2010 07:44 Using the AQB Ratings 9 June 2010 http://www.image.co.nz/aqb/soccer_ratings.html. Probabilities of World Cup victory: 1 Spain 37.4519% 2 Brazil 17.9955% 3 Netherlands 10.1156% 4 England 8.6190% 5 Argentina 6.6033% 6 Chile 3.7097% 7 Germany 2.3100% 8 Italy 2.2367% 9 Mexico 1.9023% 10 Uruguay 1.7358% 11 Serbia 1.2706% 12 Portugal 1.2658% 13 Australia 0.7478% 14 USA 0.6564% 15 France 0.6146% 16 South Korea 0.5982% 17 Paraguay 0.4919% 18 South Africa 0.4849% 19 Cote d'Ivoire 0.3927% 20 Nigeria 0.3777% 21 Cameroon 0.0732% 22 Denmark 0.0651% 23 Ghana 0.0624% 24 Greece 0.0580% 25 Slovenia 0.0526% 26 Japan 0.0323% 27 Slovakia 0.0323% 28 Algeria 0.0212% 29 Switzerland 0.0119% 30 New Zealand 0.0067% 31 Honduras 0.0039% 32 North Korea 0.0001% N.B. South Africa's home advantage is worth 78.80 ratings points. Assumptions: 1. Probabilitiy of a draw is a linear function of the difference in AQB ratings of the two teams (based on World Cups 1994-2006). 2. If two teams were tied at the end of the group stage, the probability of a team being ahead was the same as the probability of a head-to-head win. Comments: Are there no more 'official' matches before the World Cup kicks off? If so, then these are the probabilities on Matchday 1. Spain benefits from being drawn in an easy group, with an almost certain probability of progressing to the second round (by comparison, hosts Germany had the highest probability before the 2006 World Cup, at 13.435% (and eventual winners Italy had a probability of 7.161% which was the seventh highest)). Myk
From: Raja, The Great on 9 Jun 2010 08:29 On Jun 9, 6:44 am, "Myk Cameron" <m...(a)image.co.nz> wrote: > Using the AQB Ratings 9 June 2010http://www.image.co.nz/aqb/soccer_ratings.html. > > Probabilities of World Cup victory: > > 1 Spain 37.4519% > 2 Brazil 17.9955% > 3 Netherlands 10.1156% > 4 England 8.6190% > 5 Argentina 6.6033% > 6 Chile 3.7097% > 7 Germany 2.3100% > 8 Italy 2.2367% > 9 Mexico 1.9023% > 10 Uruguay 1.7358% > > 11 Serbia 1.2706% > 12 Portugal 1.2658% > 13 Australia 0.7478% > 14 USA 0.6564% > 15 France 0.6146% > 16 South Korea 0.5982% > 17 Paraguay 0.4919% > 18 South Africa 0.4849% > 19 Cote d'Ivoire 0.3927% > 20 Nigeria 0.3777% > > 21 Cameroon 0.0732% > 22 Denmark 0.0651% > 23 Ghana 0.0624% > 24 Greece 0.0580% > 25 Slovenia 0.0526% > 26 Japan 0.0323% > 27 Slovakia 0.0323% > 28 Algeria 0.0212% > 29 Switzerland 0.0119% > 30 New Zealand 0.0067% > > 31 Honduras 0.0039% > 32 North Korea 0.0001% > > N.B. South Africa's home advantage is worth 78.80 ratings points. > > Assumptions: > 1. Probabilitiy of a draw is a linear function of the difference in > AQB ratings of the two teams (based on World Cups 1994-2006). > 2. If two teams were tied at the end of the group stage, the > probability of a team being ahead was the same as the probability of a > head-to-head win. > > Comments: > Are there no more 'official' matches before the World Cup kicks off? If so, > then these are the probabilities on Matchday 1. Spain benefits from being > drawn in an easy group, with an almost certain probability of progressing to > the second round (by comparison, hosts Germany had the highest probability > before the 2006 World Cup, at 13.435% (and eventual winners Italy had a > probability of 7.161% which was the seventh highest)). > > Myk Spain seem to be heavily favored. And that is not a good thing for them, as history has revealed us
From: felangey on 9 Jun 2010 08:35 >Spain seem to be heavily favored. And that is not a good thing for them, as history has revealed us.< They were faves for Euro 2008....that seemed to work out for them! ;) I expect this will be the most hottly contested tournie for a while. Less and less poor teams!
From: Abubakr on 9 Jun 2010 09:24 On Jun 9, 10:35 pm, "felangey" <o...(a)cloudnine.com> wrote: > >Spain seem to be heavily favored. And that is not a good thing for > > them, as history has revealed us.< > > They were faves for Euro 2008....that seemed to work out for them! ;) I don't remember them as being particular favourites. They weren't even seeded for the qualifiers and struggled early in a group with no less than four minnows. > I expect this will be the most hottly contested tournie for a while. Less > and less poor teams! I agree with on you on this.
From: felangey on 9 Jun 2010 09:32
>I don't remember them as being particular favourites.< Ah...you are correct...they were only 3rd faves behind Germany and Italy. Perenniel underacheivers, they are always a hot tip for the world cup, yet never come up with the goods. Can they shake it this year? Maybe....but we say the same every year, no? ;) |