From: Myk Cameron on
Using the AQB Ratings 19 June 2010
http://www.image.co.nz/aqb/soccer_ratings.html and World Cup results:
Argentina 4-1 South Korea
Greece 2-1 Nigeria
Mexico 2-0 France
Serbia 1-0 Germany
Slovenia 2-2 USA
England 0-0 Algeria.

Probabilities of World Cup victory:

1 Brazil 20.5945%
2 Spain 15.2840%
3 Argentina 14.3940%
4 Netherlands 13.8244%
5 England 5.7530%
6 Chile 5.3263%
7 Mexico 4.8708%
8 Uruguay 4.5913%
9 Italy 2.9468%
10 Germany 2.5637%

11 Portugal 1.9693%
12 Serbia 1.5825%
13 South Korea 1.1661%
14 USA 1.0308%
15 Paraguay 0.9174%
16 Cote d'Ivoire 0.7994%
17 Ghana 0.4739%
18 Switzerland 0.4176%
19 Australia 0.3654%
20 Slovenia 0.3259%

21 Japan 0.2935%
22 France 0.1067%
23 Greece 0.0915%
24 Denmark 0.0892%
25 South Africa 0.0836%
26 Slovakia 0.0504%
27 Nigeria 0.0354%
28 Algeria 0.0209%
29 Cameroon 0.0185%
30 New Zealand 0.0126%

31 North Korea 0.0004%
32 Honduras 0.0002%

N.B. South Africa's home advantage is worth 78.78 ratings points.


Assumptions:
1. Probabilitiy of a draw is a linear function of the difference in AQB
ratings between the two teams (based on matches from World Cups 1994-2006).
2. If two teams are tied at the end of the group stage, the probability of a
team being ahead on GD is the same as the probability of a head-to-head win.


Comments:
Argentina moves ahead of Netherlands into third. Germany's probability
halves after their loss to Serbia, who jump from 20th to 12th. England are
down significantly after their surprise draw with Algeria, and France drop
from 15th to 22nd after their loss to Mexico.


Myk