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From: World Cup Ratings 2010 on 26 Apr 2010 13:17
A very hot-discussed issue in every World Cup is how the Luck of the
Draw affects the chances of the teams during the tournament.
Since the freeware program "World Cup Ratings 2010" takes into account
all the combinations possible in the future, this question can be
answered quantitatively by comparing its results with a "mean
expectation" (mean Elo number, Elo fraction to the power of 4.5: ~ 1/
(1 + 10^((Elomean - Elo)/400))^4.5).

The results are as follows:

Lucky teams:
- Netherlands: +2.7%
- England: +1.5%
- Italy: +1.0%
- Argentina: +0.5%

Unlucky teams:
- Spain: -1.1%
- Chile: -0.6%
- Uruguay: -0.5%

Interestingly, this seems not to be considered in "normal" odd quotas
(quota = 1 / prob.)...

(For the Elo method see www.eloratings.net
"World cup Ratings 2010" can be downloaded at
http://www.file-upload.net/download-2455021/WorldCupRatings2010v1.0.zip.html
Twitter: worldcupratings)
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