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From: milivella on 28 Feb 2010 20:47
....but let's start from the beginning. Mr. McCracken for sure doesn't
need to be introduced. After all, there is an article about him in
Wikipedia!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voros_McCracken
But, if I have to digest his curriculum vitae in just a line... he won
a RSS prediction contest (Euro 2004). ;)

In recent years, he's posting in his site
http://vorosmccracken.com/
about his NTs rating system, from which he's deducing both rankings
and event simulations. If you are not familiar with his system, you
can start reading the following post
http://vorosmccracken.com/?p=142
and then dig in his content-rich site.

As I've mentioned earlier today, after the WC groups draw Mr.
McCracken has posted the table of WC winning chances according to his
system
http://vorosmccracken.com/2010wcsimresult120409.html
I (and other readers) have noted that there are some differences
between this table and bookmakers' odds, so I challenged him...

...."Dear Mr. McCracken, I bet that no one of the following NTs will
win the WC...
Spain
Brazil
Netherlands
Portugal
Mexico
Uruguay
Denmark
Paraguay
Serbia
USA
Australia
Greece
Japan
Switzerland
Republic of Korea
Honduras
....despite they (combined) have 65.47% chances to win the WC according
to your simulation. I bet so because these teams have less than 50%
chances according to bookmakers. Do you accept?"

....And he kindly (yes, he's not just smart, but very kind as well)
accepted! (and permitted me to write here about the bet)

Now, I have to add at least two disclaimers: 1. There's no money
involved, only glory. 2. One single event (a NT winning the WC) means
nothing statistically. This said... I'm excited! :)

---

Appendix for the very lazy RSSer

I'll win if one of the following NTs will win the WC:
England
Argentina
Italy
Germany
France
Cote d'Ivoire
Chile
Ghana
Cameroon
Nigeria
South Africa
Slovenia
Slovakia
Algeria
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea
New Zealand

--
Cheers
milivella
 
From: Jesus Petry on 28 Feb 2010 22:50
On 28 fev, 22:47, milivella <milive...(a)gmail.com> wrote:
> ...but let's start from the beginning. Mr. McCracken for sure doesn't
> need to be introduced. After all, there is an article about him in
> Wikipedia!http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voros_McCracken
> But, if I have to digest his curriculum vitae in just a line... he won
> a RSS prediction contest (Euro 2004). ;)
>
> In recent years, he's posting in his sitehttp://vorosmccracken.com/
> about his NTs rating system, from which he's deducing both rankings
> and event simulations. If you are not familiar with his system, you
> can start reading the following posthttp://vorosmccracken.com/?p=142
> and then dig in his content-rich site.

I'm happy to notice that a specialist uses goals (instead of W/D/L)
as base for a prediction system, just as I do for my Brasileirão
simulations!

Tchau!
Jesus Petry
From: FF on 1 Mar 2010 06:14
milivella wrote:
>
> I (and other readers) have noted that there are some differences
> between this table and bookmakers' odds, so I challenged him...
>
> ..."Dear Mr. McCracken, I bet that no one of the following NTs will
> win the WC...
> Spain
> Brazil
> Netherlands
> Portugal
> ...

You'll lose. :-)
From: milivella on 1 Mar 2010 17:33
Jesus Petry:

> On 28 fev, 22:47, milivella <milive...(a)gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > ...but let's start from the beginning. Mr. McCracken for sure doesn't
> > need to be introduced. After all, there is an article about him in
> > Wikipedia!http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voros_McCracken
> > But, if I have to digest his curriculum vitae in just a line... he won
> > a RSS prediction contest (Euro 2004). ;)
>
> > In recent years, he's posting in his sitehttp://vorosmccracken.com/
> > about his NTs rating system, from which he's deducing both rankings
> > and event simulations. If you are not familiar with his system, you
> > can start reading the following posthttp://vorosmccracken.com/?p=142
> > and then dig in his content-rich site.
>
> I'm happy to notice that a specialist uses goals (instead of W/D/L)
> as base for a prediction system, just as I do for my Brasileirão
> simulations!

If you do it, of course it's right!

Anyway, here is an attempt to categorize the prediction and ranking
systems (I mean the ranking system that, at least implicitly, predict
future results) I know of: what data do they use?

1. Results (i.e. wins-draws-losses) only:

1.1. AQB Sports Ratings
http://www.image.co.nz/aqb/about_formulae.html

1.2. FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking
http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/procedure/men.html

1.3. Martien Maas' International Football Ranking Tables
http://www.maasranking.nl/EN_Docum/EN_description.htm

2. Results and goals:

2.1. World Football Elo Ratings
http://www.eloratings.net/system.html

3. Goals only:

3.1. Chance de Gol
http://chancedegol.uol.com.br/entenda.htm

3.2. Voros McCracken's National Team Ratings
http://vorosmccracken.com/?p=142

4. Goals and shots on goal:

4.1. Fink Tank Predictor
http://www.dectech.org/football_sites/football/help_info.php

Feel free to correct these entries and/or add new ones.

--
Cheers
milivella
From: milivella on 1 Mar 2010 17:35
FF:

> milivella wrote:
>
> > I (and other readers) have noted that there are some differences
> > between this table and bookmakers' odds, so I challenged him...
>
> > ..."Dear Mr. McCracken, I bet that no one of the following NTs will
> > win the WC...
> > Spain
> > Brazil
> > Netherlands
> > Portugal
> > ...
>
> You'll lose. :-)

So why don't you accept a little bet from me? If Brazil or Spain win
the WC, you win; otherwise I win.

Ideas for the prizes:
- If FF wins, milivella opens a thread in which he has to defend video-
aided refereeing against any counter-argument.
- If milivella wins, FF joins Fantasy Scout.

Come on! :)

--
Cheers
milivella
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